ENGLISH PREMIER BETTING PICK - ARSENAL V EVERTON

English Premier

2011-12-10 - Arsenal vs Everton

A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps

ARSENAL v EVERTON
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 10th December - Kickoff 3:00pm

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Arsenal

After a great run over the last week weeks, Wenger's side have moved into the top 5 and their quest for a top 4 finish looks back on course following a poor start to the season.

On Saturday Arsenal host Everton in what looks to be statistically a very one sided game. The Gunners will certainly be a force at home where they have taken 16pts from a possible 24 winning 5 from 7 and losing just the once, their home opener to Liverpool back in August.

Since losing to the Reds, Arsenal went on to win 5 straight beating Swansea (1-0), Bolton (3-0), Sunderland (2-1), Stoke (3-1) and West Brom (3-0). However, this great run was stopped last time out as poor travellers Fulham took the lead at the Emirates and eventually held out for a shock 1-1 draw.

Scoring goals is a massive asset for this club, with 13 goals in 7 home games it's nearly 2 a game. Surprisingly at the other end they are playing quite tight at the back with just 5 conceded and 2 of these came to Liverpool in August. In their 7 games 3 have ended in Arsenal clean sheets which is very good for what is perceived to be a struggling back 4 but the level of opposition isn't of the highest quality in this run.

Team news is that Abou Diaby, Santos, Gibbs, Jenkinson, Miyaichi, Rosicky, Sagna and Wilshere miss out for the Gunners leaving a few headaches at the back for Wenger.

We should see a back line of Djourou, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Vermaelen which will see basically 4 centre backs across playing but I don't think this will weaken them at all. As usual Van Persie, Ramsey and Walcott will be those expected to produce the good going forward and with 24 goals between them Everton's back line should certainly be kept busy all afternoon.

Everton

Everton currently occupy 10th spot and just as you think they have turned a corner they produce another inconsistent display. Last week they faced a tired Stoke side that played a key Europa League tie just a few days before visiting Goodison Park but still left with all 3 points. The Toffees must bounce back this week but face the daunting trip to Arsenal that has seen them take just 6 points from a possible 54!

Moye's side has really struggled to get on a decent run this season with their opening 13 games reading LWDWLLLWLLWWL so it's either win or lose most of the time with a split of W5-D1-L7.

Looking at the away form specifically Everton have the 8th best record away from Goodison with 3 wins and 3 defeats from 6 played. Their wins have come at Blackburn (1-0), Fulham (3-1) and Bolton (2-0) whilst defeats have come at Chelsea (3-1), Man City (2-0) and Newcastle (2-1).

It's worth noting that the wins have come at mid to lower level clubs in the league whilst all the defeats have come at top 6 sides. This implies that as expected when Everton face a top level of opponent they seen to struggle and up against a high scoring Arsenal side they could really up against it this weekend.

The good news is that they did score at Newcastle and Chelsea whilst coming very close at City so should expect them to trouble Arsenal's makeshift back line through the encounter. Another plus is that in 2 of their 3 wins Moye's side has kept a clean sheet so if Everton can "do a Fulham" and get in front, their defence should keep them in it for long spells in this one.

Team news for Everton is that Anichebe is out whilst doubts remain over Distin, Drenthe and Neville. I expect all the doubts to make this one and Everton will be a full strength with Saha up top supported by Cahill in behind. This is a settled lineup that knows unless they dig deep and absorb long spells of ball chasing they will certainly lose.

The Betting Verdict

As mentioned above the head to head is one sided with Arsenal winning 14 of the last 18 games and 3 of the last 5 with Everton securing a 1-1 and 2-2 draw in 06 and 10.

Head to head means nothing as it's based on very different variables but Wenger seems to beat Moyes when at home and that should happen this week.

Arsenal have soo many goals in them at the moment that I just don't see Everton keeping up. The Toffees lost to nil at City and scored with the last kick of the game at Chelsea when 3-0 down so I don't see them as prolific scorers against "top sides".

Arsenal rested their key players midweek and after dropping points to Fulham I expect a big performance this week from Wenger's men and will take them -3/4 ball instead of the 1 goal ball if Everton's decent defence keeps this close. Home win.

Good Luck.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

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