Champions League
2011-12-07 - Ajax vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League
Wednesday 7 December 2011 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Ajax
This is a big game for the former 4-time winners of the Champions League as they have a chance to progress to the last 16 for the first time since the 2005/06 season. Ajax have to face one of the favourites for the competition to do so, but they have the benefit of knowing Real Madrid are likely to rest players as they have qualified for the next stage.
Ajax are 2nd in the Group, 3 points clear of Lyon with a vastly superior goal difference. After drawing both games with the French side, Ajax know there needs to be a 7 goal swing if they are to exit the competition, while any points they gain in this game will mean they are through.
The team have lost just 1 of their last 11 games in all competitions so they should have plenty of confidence that they can do enough to earn a point in this game. Ajax have yet to lose at the Amsterdam Arena this season, although they have drawn 3 of their last 5 games in front of their own fans.
Frank de Boer has a few injury concerns to contend with, but the most recent of those is Toby Alderweireld who was injured in training. That means Ajax will need to make a change at centre half for this game.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid are clearly one of the favourites to win the Champions League and they have made a very strong start to their season as a whole. Jose Mourinho usually expects bigger things from his team in his 2nd season in charge, and they have opened up a lead in La Liga as well as reaching the last 16 of the Champions League while winning every game.
Los Merengues have won all 5 games and have only conceded 2 goals in those games to secure top spot in the Group. Real Madrid have won both away games in the Group, scoring 3 goals and keeping clean sheets in both at Dinamo Zagreb and Lyon.
The team have won 14 games in a row in all competitions since drawing 0-0 at Racing Santander. 6 of those wins have come away from home and they have kept 5 clean sheets in those games. In fact, 8 of their last 10 away games has seen the sides keep a clean sheet.
With Barcelona on the horizon, and top spot secured in the Group, I have absolutely no doubt that Real Madrid will be planning to rest as many players as the Catalans did in their game on Tuesday. It has been confirmed that Gonzalo Higuain and Karim Benzema will play, but Ronaldo, Marcelo, Sergio Ramos, Iker Casillas, Pepe and Sami Khedira are all going to be rested.
Head to Head
These teams met at this stage of the competition last season, with Real Madrid winning both games without conceding a goal.
The game at the Amsterdam Arena ended 0-4 to Real Madrid and was also notable for suggestions that the away side deliberately got their own players booked to avoid suspensions later in the competition.
Real Madrid beat Ajax 3-0 at home earlier this season.
Prediction
This is a tough round of games to predict as the layers are simply shortening prices on teams that HAVE to win games, but I felt there may be some value in this game on playing the 'Under 2.5 Goals'.
It is clear that Real Madrid will be resting players in anticipation of the game against Barcelona, while any first team starters will surely be focused on not picking up a silly injury and miss that game.
On the other hand, Ajax are not likely to over-commit going forward as even a close loss is unlikely to hurt their chances of going through to the last 16 unless Lyon win big in Zagreb, something that neither Real Madrid or Ajax managed to do earlier in the Group.
I can see this being quite a competitive game for 60-70 minutes, but I think at that point both sides may settle for what they have unless Real Madrid are winning heavily and Ajax are forced to commit men forward in search of goals.
I imagine the home side will look to play this cautious early and for that reason I would be surprised if a second-string Real Madrid team is able to steam-roll them as the first team did last season.
At odds against, I think it is worth taking the 'Unders' to come in here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Ajax 0-0 Real Madrid
