Champions League
2011-12-07 - Basel vs Manchester United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League
Wednesday 7 December 2011 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Basel
When the Group Stages were drawn back in August, I am sure Basel would have snapped your hand off if you told them they could be playing at home on Match Day 6 with qualification to the last 16 available with a win. They have had changes in the management staff during the early part of the Champions League campaign, but they are in a position to move through to the elite 16 at the expense of a team that has reached 3 Finals in the last 4 years.
Basel have picked up 8 points from their opening 5 games in the Group and are only 1 point behind Benfica and Manchester United. They are well aware that a win will put them through, while anything less will see the Swiss side given the consolation of playing in the Europa League after the winter break. Basel's only defeat so far in this stage of the competition came here when they faced Benfica.
Since that home loss to Benfica, Basel have been unbeaten in 9 straight games in all competitions, winning 7 of those. The team have won 6 of their last 7 home games, the only exception being that game with Benfica, and they have won 3 in a row coming into this one.
Valentin Stocker made his first appearance of the season on Saturday, although he may have to settle for a place on the bench for this game. Gilles Yapi and Kay Voser are both missing.
Manchester United
Manchester United got back to winning ways on Saturday after recording 3 consecutive draws before that, although they will be aware they just need to avoid defeat in Switzerland if they want to progress to the last 16. It is already unlikely that United finish top of this Group, but falling out of the Champions League completely would be a big blow to the side.
The Red Devils look destined to finish behind Benfica regardless of their result in Basel as Benfica hold the head to head advantage and entertain pointless Otelul Galati in their final game. United have 9 points from their opening 5 games in the Group, but have failed to beat any side other than the Romanians so far.
The team should have some confidence from their 9 game unbeaten run coming into this one, although they will not want to play for a draw. United have won 5 away games in a row in all competitions, keeping clean sheets in each of those wins with the last 3 all coming 0-1. United are unbeaten in their last 8 away games in the Champions League and have only conceded 1 goal in those games.
Javier Hernandez and Dimitar Berbatov are both out of this game so Danny Welbeck could be asked to partner Wayne Rooney. Nemanja Vidic is back from his 2 game European suspension, but Michael Carrick is suspended and could be replaced by Darren Fletcher. Tom Cleverley and Anderson are other centre midfielders missing so there is a chance that Phil Jones is given one of those spots as he was on Saturday.
Head to Head
Basel and Manchester United played out an entertaining 3-3 draw at Old Trafford earlier in the competition, with the Swiss side showing plenty of their capabilities and character after coming from 2-0 down to almost win the game.
They last played here in the 2002/03 season when United won 1-3 after falling behind to a goal scored within the first minute.
Prediction
I can understand why the layers have priced the 'Over 2.5 Goals' at odds on, but I think they are overestimating the chances for goals in this game.
I feel both sides are going to be cautious in making sure they do not fall behind, especially the home side, as that would leave a huge mountain to climb.
United are vastly underpriced considering they don't have to win to qualify and we have already seen how much trouble Basel can cause after their performance at Old Trafford. Since those early games, United have clearly been focusing on their defensive shape and it is telling that they have secured 5 straight clean sheets away from home.
I expect Sir Alex Ferguson to set his side up in a 'tough to beat' manner and think goals could be at a premium in this game. United will be happy to defend properly knowing they will get their chances to score at least one goal, and that could be all it takes to settle the match.
Basel are a good attacking team, as they have shown, but they failed to score in their home game against Benfica, and United have conceded just 1 goal in 8 away games in this competition with all but one of those games finishing with 2 goals or less.
At the prices on offer, I think the 'Under 2.5 Goals' could be the way forward in this one.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Basel 0-1 Manchester United
