Champions League
2011-11-22 - Bayern Munich vs Villarreal
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League
Tuesday 22 November 2011 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich were stunned 0-1 at home against Borussia Dortmund at the weekend, but could cement their place in the last 16 of the Champions League this week, while also all but settling the top spot in the Group. Much of their success has been based around a strong defence, particularly at home as they look to continue their march to the Final which will be played at the Allianz Stadium in May.
The Bavarian giants have picked up 10 points from their opening 4 games in the Group, at that leaves them 5 points clear of Napoli in 3rd spot and 3 clear of Manchester City in 2nd. A third home win will see Bayern Munich in a position to finish top of the Group if they can avoid a 2 goal defeat in Manchester in the final game, or if City fail to win in Napoli on the same night.
They had won 4 games in a row in all competitions before the loss to Borussia Dortmund at the weekend, and they had won their previous 9 games at the Allianz before the loss. Bayern Munich had racked up 8 consecutive clean sheets at home before conceding 2 to Napoli and then the 1 to Dortmund.
Bastian Schweinsteiger is out until December, while Arjen Robben may only earn a substitute spot as he recently returned to the squad.
Villarreal
Villarreal have had a tough start to the new campaign, but there are signs that things are picking up for a squad that has been hit with big injuries. The side are already effectively out of all European competitions following a tough Champions League Group, while their domestic form has left them down in 12th spot in La Liga.
Back to back losses to Manchester City left Villarreal on zero points from their 4 games in the Group, a situation that means they are 5 points behind Napoli in 3rd spot and gaining a consolation place in the Europa League. The team now have to win their remaining two games and hope Napoli are beaten by Manchester City for Villarreal to steal that spot from the Italians.
They have now lost just 1 of their last 4 games in all competitions, being unbeaten in their last 3 League games in Spain. The team have also won 2 of those 4 games, a far cry from a run of 7 games without a win before this mini-run. Villarreal have not won any of their 9 away games played this season, and they have scored just 2 goals in those games.
Angel Lopez is in the squad that travelled to Germany having missed the game at the weekend with a virus, but Villarreal have a long injury list including Giuseppe Rossi, Nilmar, Gonzalo Rodriguez, Cani and Cristian Zapata.
Head to Head
This is the first competitive meeting between the teams in Germany, after Bayern Munich won 0-2 in Spain earlier in the Group.
Prediction
I would be surprised if this game ends up with anything other than a Bayern Munich home win, but the odds suggest the layers are not really looking at any other result being a real possibility.
However, it does seem to me that Paddy Power are taking a chance with their 1.92 quote that Bayern can win with a clean sheet, something they have been very familiar with all season, especially at home.
Villarreal are missing some of their most important strikers and have struggled for goals away from home all season and they could be forgiven for not being entirely focused on the game with a European exit very much looming.
The German side already kept a clean sheet in Spain earlier in the Group, so I will take my chances on them doubling that up here as they all but secure top spot in the Group.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bayern Munich 2-0 Villarreal
