Champions League
2011-11-22 - Napoli vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League
Tuesday 22 November 2011 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Napoli
Napoli have made a decent impact in the Champions League considering this is their first season in the competition, but they still have a big mountain to negotiate if they are to force their way into the last 16. The side have had a mixed bag to their start in Serie A this season, and are slightly off the pace of the top 4 in the League.
After earning an impressive 1-1 draw in Manchester, Napoli may be a little disappointed to have only earned 5 points from their 4 games in the competition. The team earned 1 point from their double-header with Bayern Munich and that means they are 2 points behind City and potentially in a position where they need the win and cannot be too happy with a point.
The form has not really indicated that they will have the confidence to beat one of the better teams in Europe as Napoli have won just 1 of their last 7 games in all competitions and they have failed to win any of their last 3. Napoli have won just 1 of their last 4 games in all competitions at the San Paulo.
Walter Gargano played a part in Napoli's game at the weekend and is in the squad for this one. Goran Pandev is also available but Marco Donadel remains on the sidelines.
Manchester City
Manchester City are beaten all challengers in the Premier League this season as shown by the fact they lead the table having dropped just 2 points from their opening 12 games this season. The Champions League has been a tougher prospect for Roberto Mancini's men, although there have been signs that they are getting to grips with this too.
1 point gained from 2 Champions League games had people wondering if City were able to handle playing big games every three days, but wins in both games against injury-hit Villarreal will have got the attention of teams across Europe. That means City are 2 points clear of Napoli in 3rd spot in the Group and also means the team can qualify for the last 16 with a win on Tuesday evening.
And who is going to rule out a City win considering they have now won 9 games in a row in all competitions? Even more impressive is the fact that all these wins have come since the Carlos Tevez saga at Bayern Munich which shows there is a real togetherness in the squad. City have won 5 consecutive away games in all competitions and have scored at least 3 goals in each of those games.
Sergio Aguero and Yaya Toure picked up knocks in the 3-1 win over Newcastle United at the weekend, but both were substituted as a precaution and are available for selection. Samir Nasri also made his return in the game at the weekend and will be in the squad travelling to Italy.
Head to Head
This will be the first competitive meeting between the teams in Italy, although both sides have played English/Italian sides recently.
Napoli draw 0-0 with Liverpool in the Europa League last season, while Manchester City earned a 1-1 draw at Juventus in the same competition.
Prediction
I can completely understand why Manchester City have been made the favourites to win this game, but I will not be backing them at the odds as they could set themselves up in a manner that makes them hard to beat as a point would put them in a very good position to still make it through to the last 16.
I am sure they will want to win knowing they could still potentially dethrone Bayern Munich from the top spot in the Group, and thus avoid a more difficult last 16 opponent, but the first port of call remains the desire to not be beaten.
With that in mind, I think it will be tough for Napoli to create as many chance as they did when the teams first met as City should not be so open to the counter attack the Napoli front three enjoy.
All that leads me to believing this won't be as high scoring as anticipated and I favour going 'Under 2.5 Goals'- both Napoli's home games in this competition have seen 2 goals scored, while City are unlikely to be too gung-ho if the situation sees them level or up a goal in the last quarter of the game.
City have been scoring goals for fun away from home in recent games, so I could look foolish making this pick, but I think Mancini puts away the attacking game plan he has used so often this season and goes back to a more conservative approach.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Napoli 1-1 Manchester City
