NCAA Football
2011-11-19 - Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 12
Saturday 19 November 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
After back to back losses in the consecutive weeks, it looked like the Wisconsin Badgers (8-2) were not even going to be in a position to play in the Big Ten Championship Game after being touted for so long as a dark horse to play in the National Championship Game.
However, recent results means the Leaders Division is back in the Badgers own control as they prepare to meet the slumping Illinois Fighting Illini (6-4).
The Badgers are 4-2 in Conference play this season, leaving them one game behind Penn State but also with the knowledge that they can win the Division if they can beat Illinois and then the Nittany Lions in their final game.
Wisconsin will feel they can beat Illinois this week considering their opponents are 2-4 in the Conference this year and are fresh off 4 consecutive defeats in which they have failed to score more than 14 points in any single game.
Wisconsin are a powerful running team behind Montee Ball and the threat of Russell Wilson and they will feel they can get things going despite Illinois' Defense allowing just 3 yards per carry on the year. The reason for the Wisconsin optimism will be the fact that Michigan just ran at 4.6 yards per carry last week in a win at the Fighting Illinois and I believe the Badgers are the best Offense this Defense will have seen all year.
The Badgers are also capable of passing the ball through Wilson, and that should be made a little easier if they establish a running game. It will also slow down the Illinois pass rush that has been effective this season, although Wisconsin do have a good Offensive Line that has protected Wilson effectively. All in all it seems the Badgers should be able to move the ball efficiently throughout the contest.
Illinois will look to counter Wisconsin by establishing a running game of their own, but that will not be easy against a Defense that has allowed just 3.7 yards per carry this year. James White will get the bulk of the carries, but Nathan Scheelhaase also provides a threat from the QB position as shown from his 6 rushing TDs. However, they have only been gaining 4 yards per carry this year and that means there will be pressure on Scheelhaase to throw the ball to move the chains.
Scheelhaase has 12 TD passes and 6 Interceptions when throwing, but he has not been protected well behind this Offensive Line, although his ability to scramble will help him out. The Badgers have allowed less than 150 yards passing in their games this season, while Illinois have struggled to do get things going this way and it could be tough for the Fighting Illinois to keep the chains moving efficiently.
Head to Head
These teams last met in 2008, with Wisconsin coming out on top at home in a game they were considered as the underdog.
The Badgers did lose on their last visit to Illinois, but had won big in their previous 2 games.
Illinois are 4-6 against the spread this season, Wisconsin are 6-3-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Illinois are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog of 10.5 points or more. However, they are 7-20 against the spread in their last 27 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Wisconsin are 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more. They are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 Conference games.
Prediction
I like the Wisconsin Badgers to win this game for the following reasons:
First, Illinois have been struggling to score points in their last 4 games and that will not give them a chance to keep it close against Wisconsin who have motivation to win the Leaders Division firing them up.
Second, Illinois have really struggled when taking a heavy loss at home, while this team have been slumping in recent weeks and now face the best team they met all season.
Third, I think Wisconsin move the ball effectively throughout this game and so can see them putting up enough points to cover this spread.
The Pick :
Illinois Fighting Illini 14-34 Wisconsin Badg
