NFL Football
2011-11-14 - Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL
Monday, November 14th, 2011, 8:30PM US
(1:30AM GMT)
PREVIEW
Maybe it's best not to follow the pick I'm about to make on this rather late preview but I think it's obvious where the public is going to put their money and I'm going to make a contrarian play.
The Packers are a perfect 8-0, something only 2 previous defending Superbowl Champions have done. They are at home, against a divisional rival and not many would bet on Green Bay getting beaten here - but the spread is set at 13 and this is where I will get involved.
Minnesota are coming off a bye and should be well rested and looking for revenge for the previous meeting earlier this season, where they lost by a mere 6 points, 33-27. In fact, Minnesota actually led at halftime, before Rodgers fired his team up to 20 3rd quarter points to take the lead.
For all their dominance, the numbers don't lie. Rodgers is playing out of his mind, with a 129 passer rating and accumulating 2,600 passing yards and 24 TDs, unheard of numbers through the first 8 games. The Packers need it too, as they are giving up yardage like they're going out of fashion! Green Bay are 30th in total defence and are getting shredded for almost 300 yards through the air, second worst after the Patriots!
In the last game, Adrian Peterson rushed for 175 yards on this Packers defence, and has 982 yards on the ground against the Cheeseheads in 9 meetings, almost 110 per game! Christian Ponder might be a rookie but the Minnesota Vikings QB may well get the chance to have some success here against this questionable pass rush.
Green Bay have scored a bunch, and are averaging well over 30 points, which only the Saints have also done (although their whitewashing of the Colts skews that number) but the Packers are giving up a lot of yardage. I see that for all the yardage amassed by the Pack via Rodgers, they have outgained their 8 opponents by just 18 total yards per game!!
The Packers are allowing opponents 6.3 yards per play and Minnesota actually moved at about 6.7 yards per play, which means they performed better than most against Green Bay. That is cemented when you see the Vikings had 435 yards in total. they just could not turn that into a win.
Minnesota are 2-6 but if you total their scores their 8 games have seen them beaten by less than 3.5 points per game. The public perception of the Packers is based on their blistering offence that can score points whenever it really needs to, but the defence has question marks all over it, which means that the good work of Rodgers can be undone by the D, leaving spreads in danger. The Packers are 8-0 but only 2 of those wins have come by more than 11 points!
BETTING VERDICT
The Packers have 14 straight wins now, going back 11 months, and I sure as hell would not want to bet against them winning here. At home, they are capable of climbing out of any hole, so will always be a danger.
However, I cannot discount the way Minnesota managed to hang with them through the first half in the last game. They might be away, but they are rested following their bye and confident following their win over Carolina. I say they hang around for a while and keep it close.
Hate going against the Pack, but this has to be done - with the help of a big 13 point start..
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Minnesota Vikings
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the Minnesota Vikings +13
