Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Sooners Betting pick | 2011-11-05

NCAA Football

2011-11-05 - Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Sooners

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Texas A&M Aggies @ Oklahoma Sooners
United States: NCAA Football Week 10
Saturday 5 November 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
7:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

This is a vital Big 12 game for both teams as the Oklahoma Sooners (7-1) try to keep the pressure up on the best teams in the nation as well as Oklahoma State from within their own Conference. The Texas A&M Aggies (5-3) will feel their record does not do themselves justice this season, but know they are only 1 win from becoming Bowl eligible.

The Sooners destroyed the Kansas State Wildcats on the road last week to move to 4-1 in the Conference, only 1 game behind the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the race for the Big 12 title. As I mentioned in my preview last week, Oklahoma are still in the race to play in the National Championship game if they run the table, and it is telling that Vegas list them as the 5th favourites to win the National title behind Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma State and Stanford.

Texas are 3-2 in Conference play this season, but they will know it could have been all so different for them. The Aggies 3 losses this year have come by a combined 12 points, while Oklahoma State only beat them by 1 point earlier in the year. However, confidence can't be that high after they lost to Missouri last week by 7 points in overtime at home as the 11 points favourites.

This is also a tough spot for Texas as they are meeting a team that rarely loses at home, but one that did lose their last home game. The Aggies also beat up on Oklahoma at home last season so they have given the Sooners a nice revenge angle too.

Ryan Tannehill will hope to replicate the game from last season when he played fairly well against the Sooners. The QB has 19 TD passes this season with only 7 Interceptions, but one of those led to the loss against the Tigers last week. He won't have it easy against a Sooners team that has allowed just 214 yards per game through the air and one that is only allowing the opposition QB to complete 55% of their passes.

However, the Sooners Secondary was torched through the air in their loss to Texas Tech and that is something Tannehill must hold on to if he is in need of some confidence. The QB has also been well protected so far this season as the Aggies have allowed just 7 sacks all season, but now they face the best pass rushing team they will have played this year. The Sooners record 5 sacks per game so far this season.

Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray have been brilliant out of the backfield for Texas all season, but will face a tough challenge against Oklahoma who are allowing just 3.3 yards per carry and one that managed to shut down the Kansas State running game in the second half last week.

A big problem for Texas in this game is their pass Defense which has allowed over 300 yards per game this season and one that will now be facing Landry Jones and the Oklahoma Offense that put up over 500 yards through the air in wiping out Kansas State. The Sooners are averaging just under 400 yards passing this season, and have done a good job protecting Jones behind the Offensive Line.

They may just have to rely on Jones more than in normal weeks as running the ball could prove difficult against this stout Texas Defense which is allowing just 3 yards per carry. The Sooners are also without Dominique Whaley, their leading rusher, who broke his leg last week and is likely going to miss the rest of the season.

Roy Finch is likely to start in place of Whaley in this game, while the Offensive Line is likely to receive a boost with the news that Ben Habern (C) has been upgraded to probable after missing a month of action.

While the Aggies were expected to struggle against the pass anyway, they will be missing Coryell Judie (CB) who remains questionable having missed the last 2 games. Judie is considered the best Corner in the team and could be joined on the sidelines by Brandon Alexander (LB) and Garrick Williams (LB). Jeff Fuller (WR) has been dealing with a toe injury, but should start.

Head to Head

Texas beat Oklahoma by 14 points at home last season as the 4.5 point underdogs.

Oklahoma have won 6 straight games at home against Texas, and they are 5-1 against the spread in those games.

The Sooners beat the Aggies by 55 points when they last met here in 2009.

The home team is now 11-2 against the spread in the last 13 games in the series.

Oklahoma are 5-3 against the spread this season, Texas A&M are 2-6.

Other Interesting Trends

Oklahoma are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.

They are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record.

Texas A&M are 4-12 against the spread in their last 16 games as the road underdog being given 10.5 points or more.

They are 12-30-1 against the spread in their last 43 games on the road against a team with a winning record at home.

They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in Conference play.

Prediction

I am going to back the Oklahoma Sooners to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, as I said last week, the Sooners still have a real chance of making the National Championship game if they can keep winning big and run the table. They should be fully focused for this game.

Second, the Sooners don't lose very often at home and will want to prove the loss to Texas Tech was just a fluke and there is no better way than beating up on a good Texas A&M team.

Third, there is a big revenge angle for the Sooners after losing as the favourites in Texas last season, and they have dominated games against the Aggies at home in recent seasons.

Fourth, Landry Jones and the Oklahoma Offense are more consistent than Ryan Tannehill and the Texas A&M Offense and that should allow the Sooners to pull away in the second half for an impressive win.