English Premier
2011-11-05 - Liverpool vs Swansea
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 5 November 2011 - Kickoff 3pm
Liverpool
Liverpool remain on course for a top 4 challenge and a berth in the Champions League, but all the players and staff know they need to improve their form at Anfield if they really want to achieve the expectations the fans have. Jose Enrique was the last to be quoted that the team need to win their home games if they are to have any chance of reaching the top 4.
The Reds are currently in 6th place in the Premier League having gained 18 points from their first 10 games. Surprisingly, they have earned only half of their points at Anfield where they are 2-3-0 this season, scoring 8 goals and conceding 5. A concern for the team will be the fact they have given up winning positions in all 3 games they have drawn at home this season.
Liverpool have won back to back games away from home in all competitions and they now have won 4 of their last 6 games, the only exceptions being the home draws with Manchester United and Norwich City. Interestingly, the team have conceded at least 1 goal in each of their 5 home games this season and they have failed to score more than 1 goal in 3 of those games.
Steven Gerrard has a foot infection and will not be back in the squad until after the international break at the earliest. Jamie Carragher is doubtful after missing the win at West Brom last weekend.
Swansea
Swansea have made a decent start to life in the Premier League, mainly thanks to a very strong record at the Liberty Stadium. Brendan Rodgers likes his team to get the ball down and play football and that can lead to problems away from home and the team have struggled on their travels so far. However, they have a lot of pace in the forward positions which has troubled teams.
A 3-1 win over Bolton Wanderers at home last weekend moved Swansea up to 10th in the table and improved their tally to 12 points from their first 10 games. Their points have almost exclusively come at home as Swansea are just 0-1-4 away from home, scoring 4 goals and conceding 14. Only Arsenal have conceded more away goals so far this season.
Swansea have picked up 7 points from their last 4 games in which they have suffered just 1 defeat. It looked like the team were going to pick up their first away win of the season last time out at Wolves when they led 0-2 going into the final 10 minutes before a late rally from the home team meant they shared the points. The Swans have conceded 2 or more goals in 5 of their 6 away games in all competitions, and have suffered heavy defeats at Manchester City, Chelsea and Norwich City.
Kemy Agustien and Steven Caulker will both be missing until after the international break as will Stephen Dobbie. Brendan Rodgers could name an unchanged line up from the win over Bolton last week.
Head to Head
Liverpool last met Swansea in the FA Cup during the 1989/90 season when the home team won 8-0 after a replay was required.
Liverpool beat Swansea 3-0 here in the last meeting between the teams in the top flight back in the 1982/83 season.
Prediction
I can understand why Liverpool have been priced up as low as they are, because they don't seem that far away from actually hammering a team at Anfield considering the amount of chances they created in games against Norwich City and Manchester United without earning the 3 points.
The Norwich game in particularly showed a Liverpool side that were capable of creating chances at will, especially in the first half, and it was only the woodwork and inspired goalkeeping from John Ruddy that kept the Canaries in the game.
The concern for Liverpool fans is the defence that has struggled to keep teams out all season at Anfield, although they looked better at West Brom last week.
Swansea are a team that will look to get the ball down and play and that means they will allow the opposition to create chances during a 90 minute period. Their defending at Norwich and Chelsea in recent games left a lot to be desired and it was more naivety in that area that allowed Wolves to come back from 2 goals down in a game the Swans dominated.
With the away side conceding at least 2 goals a game away from home in 5 of their 6 away games, and a Liverpool side that can create a number of chances at home, I am going to take the Reds to cover the Asian Handicap and record a comfortable win here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Liverpool 3-1 Swansea
