Ajax vs Dinamo Zagreb Betting Pick | Champions League

Champions League

2011-11-02 - Ajax vs Dinamo Zagreb

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Ajax v Dinamo Zagreb
Football : Champions League Match Day 4
Wednesday 2 November 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
This game is live on TV

Ajax

When the Group Stages were drawn, it looked like being a tough test for the 4-time European Champions as Ajax were pitted with Real Madrid, Lyon and Dinamo Zagreb. The exponents of 'total football' have made a strong start in the Champions League, although they have been a little inconsistent in the Dutch Eredivisie where they are already 8 points behind the leaders AZ, mainly due to a high number of draws.

There is a feeling that Ajax may once again be gracing the latter stages of the Champions League this season as they have picked up 4 points from their opening 3 games. A loss at Real Madrid is understandable, but a 0-0 draw with Lyon at home and a win in Croatia against Dinamo leaves them in 2nd place in the group, albeit level on points with Lyon. Ajax will feel they have a good chance of extending their lead over Lyon tonight.

Ajax are unbeaten in their last 5 games in all competitions and they should have some confidence from winning 3 of their last 4 games. There have been a few struggles at the Amsterdam Arena of late where the team have drawn their last 4 games.

Lorenzo Ebecilio and Aras Ozbiliz both played on Saturday and will be hopeful to be in action today. Nicolai Boilesen and Thulani Serero are both absent, although Miralem Sulejmani is back in contention.

Dinamo Zagreb

Dinamo Zagreb do want to achieve something in the Champions League this season, but manager Krunoslav Jurcic admits that his side are most likely going to benefit from the experience of playing in the competition and will come back stronger in later years. They have a good chance of playing in the competition again next season as they hold a 7 point lead at the top of the Croatian top flight after just 13 games played.

There wasn't a lot of hope for Dinamo when the Group Stage saw them drawn alongside giants like Real Madrid and two other solid teams in Lyon and Ajax. Unsurprisingly, they have lost all the games they have played without scoring a goal, although they did push Real Madrid on Match Day 1 and only lost 0-1 at home. Subsequent 2-0 defeats at Lyon and at home to Ajax leaves them unlikely to be playing in European competition beyond Christmas.

Dinamo have won 3 games in a row since losing back to back games and have kept clean sheets in each of those games. They had also lost back to back away games before winning their last 2 games away from home, and it has to be said that Ajax are their toughest away opponents since they played Lyon on Match Day 2.

Tonel is definitely out, but Arijan Ademi and Sime Vrsaljko are both in the squad despite missing recent games with injuries.

Head to Head

Ajax last played Dinamo Zagreb at home in the 2009/10 Europa League Group Stage, winning 0-2 in Croatia and earning a 2-1 home win.

That was actually the first time in 3 home games against Dinamo that Ajax had won, with the Croatian team winning on the 2 previous visits to Amsterdam in the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons.

Prediction

Ajax have to be careful in underestimating their opponents after winning by a couple of goals in the Croatian Capital last time out. The Dutch team will know that a win here would put them in a strong position in the Group, especially if Real Madrid can win in Lyon, so I fully expect the team to be focused.

Dinamo Zagreb have looked a little short of the quality required at this level in their first 3 Group games, especially following their close Play Off win over Malmo, but I think the experience will do the team good in years to come. They will not make life easy for the home team, as they have shown against Lyon and Real Madrid, but I think they will give the home team chances that will eventually cost them.

The draws Ajax have been having at home is a worry, but I think they can record a comfortable win once they score the first goal tonight as Dinamo will be forced to come forward knowing a defeat is likely going to cost them any chance of playing in Europe beyond this stage.

I will look for Ajax to cover the Asian Handicap here.

The Statistics :

AJAX LAST SIX HOME FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-09-14	D	0-0	H v Lyon
	2010-11-23	L	0-4	H v Real_Madrid
	2010-10-19	W	2-1	H v Auxerre
	2010-09-28	D	1-1	H v Milan_AC
	2010-08-25	W	2-1	H v Dynamo_Kyiv
	2007-08-15	L	0-1	H v Slavia_Prague

DINAMO_ZAGREB LAST SIX AWAY FORM
	DATE	RESULT		OPPOSITION
	2011-09-27	L	2-0	A v Lyon
	2011-08-23	L	2-0	A v Malmo
	2010-07-27	D	1-1	A v Sheriff_Tiraspol
	2009-07-29	D	1-1	A v Salzburg
	2008-08-13	L	2-0	A v Shaktar_Donetsk
	2007-08-15	L	2-1	A v Bremen