English Premier
2011-10-29 - Chelsea vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 29 October 2011 - Kickoff 12:45pm
This game is live on TV
Chelsea
What is it with Chelsea and red cards this season? Ross Turnbull became the latest player to receive his marching orders as Chelsea were forced to beat Everton in extra time in the Carling Cup on Wednesday night, just days after Jose Bosingwa and Didier Drogba were sent off as Chelsea lost at Queens Park Rangers. What has impressed me though is the way the team have continued playing well even with limited numbers which suggest they have complete belief in the methods of Andre Villa-Boas.
The loss at Loftus Road last Sunday meant Chelsea failed to take their chance to move into 2nd spot in the Premier League and also meant they fell 6 points behind Manchester City at the top of the table. Chelsea have won all 4 games they have played at Stamford Bridge in the League, scoring 12 goals and conceding 4 in those wins, and only the top 2 teams have scored more home goals so far this season.
Chelsea had won 3 games in a row before losing to QPR last week, but they did return to winning ways, albeit in extra time, when progressing into the last 8 of the Carling Cup. They have won 6 of 7 games at home this season in all competitions, the other being a Carling Cup tie that they won in extra time. The Blues have scored at least 2 goals in all those games that they have won, and have reached 3 or more goals on 4 occasions.
Ross Turnbull and Didier Drogba are both suspended for this game, while Ramires is going to need to pass a late fitness test to determine his availability. The likes of John Terry, Frank Lampard, Raul Meireles, Juan Mata and Fernando Torres were given the night off completely on Wednesday and should be back in the starting line up, while Daniel Sturridge only played 35 minutes and should also start.
Arsenal
After all the doom and gloom to start the season at the Emirates, the team have begun picking up results and momentum that have the fans believing that a top 4 berth is still within the grasp of this side. While the team are in a good run of form, it has to be said that this is their biggest challenge since losing to local rivals Tottenham Hotspur at White Hart Lane.
Arsenal moved up to 7th in the Premier League thanks to Robin Van Persie's two late goals against Stoke City last week that earned another 3 points for the team. That leaves them just 2 points behind Liverpool and 3 points behind Spurs, the teams most likely to be challenging for Arsenal's Champions League spot. Arsenal are 0-1-3 away from home this season, scoring 6 goals and conceding 14, making them the worst away defence in the League so far along with Swansea.
The team have won 4 games in a row in all competitions since losing to Spurs and have now won 7 of their last 8 overall. While that does look good from the surface, once we look a little deeper we notice that 6 of those games took place at home, while the opponents have not exactly been stellar either (Bolton twice, Shrewsbury, Olympiakos, Sunderland and Stoke), although a win at Marseille in the Champions League was impressive. The Gunners have lost their last 3 away games in the Premier League.
Thomas Vermaelan played 85 minutes for the team in the Carling Cup win over Bolton and has declared himself fit for Saturday. Bacary Sagna is a long term injury, while Kieron Gibbs and Carl Jenkinson are major doubts. Yossi Benayoun cannot play against the club that owns his registration.
Head to Head
Arsenal beat Chelsea 3-1 at the Emirates in their last Premier League meeting, but they had been beaten comfortably in the previous 4 League games against their London rivals.
Chelsea have won the last 2 games at Stamford Bridge against the Gunners, both by 2-0 scorelines, while they had also recorded 0-3 and 1-4 wins at the Emirates.
Chelsea have won 4 of their last 6 home games in the League against Arsenal.
Prediction
I know there are bound to be a few people that think the price on Arsenal is far too big (I'll confess that I had those thoughts very briefly too), but they are not playing well enough to compete with the best teams in the League as far as I am concerned.
They have a long winning run, but, as I pointed out earlier, those opponents have not exactly been a list of top names and they have struggled to some of those wins too, particularly the game against Sunderland and Olympiakos in the Champions League.
If Chelsea can keep 11 men on the field (don't know how possible that is for them at the moment), they have more than enough talent to once again show the rest of the League that Arsenal are not the team they were even 6 months ago.
Didier Drogba is a loss for the home side, but I feel Fernando Torres suits the Andre Villa-Boas system better than the veteran and I think the Spaniard will cause plenty of problems along with Juan Mata and Daniel Sturridge with their pace and movement.
Defensively Arsenal have looked vulnerable both at home and away, and Chelsea are scoring enough goals to make hay in this lunchtime encounter.
I am not that worried that the team was forced into extra time on Wednesday as they have enough fresh legs that took no part in that game that will return to the side and I think Chelsea are capable of winning this with a bit to spare.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Chelsea 2-0 Arsenal
