English Premier
2011-10-29 - Chelsea vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 29th October - Kickoff 12:45pm
Chelsea
3rd placed Chelsea missed the chance to go second last week as they were defeated by QPR at Loftus Road 1-0. Chelsea ended that game with 9 men after Drogba and Bosingwa saw red and have since been charged by the FA for failing to control their players.
Since then Chelsea beat Everton in the Carling Cup after Extra Time but had another player sent off in that game. This time it was keeper Turnbull but as with all keeper red cards an outfield player is sacrificed and the Chelsea legs have had to play back to back games with a massive numerical disadvantage.
This week Chelsea host Arsenal in a massive clash between the 2 London sides. If Chelsea lose and their Manchester rivals win they could find themselves 4 points behind United and 9 behind City which despite it being only October is already a large number to be trailing by.
At home Chelsea has laboured to wins over WBA (2-1) and Norwich (3-1) whilst the Swansea (4-1) and Everton wins (3-1) were much more impressive. In the Swansea game Chelsea played with 10 men but still scored a couple when outnumbered. On paper the home form reads played 4, won 4 but the games haven't been as easy as that.
Villas-Boas needed time to adjust the side and apply his tactics and that was evident in the first 2 games. However, the last 2 have been dominating displays with Chelsea attacking heavily eventually winning with a bit to spare.
The problem for the Blues is their lack of clean sheets. Just one clean sheet all season on the opening day and none at home is alarming. It's more worrying that Chelsea has in fact allowed the lease amount of shots at their goal this season yet has only the 1 clean sheet.
Team news is that Drogba, Turnbull and Essien miss out whilst Ramires and Hilario are touch and go to return from injury. I suspect Hilario will make it but Ramires not to meaning Lampard, Mikel and Meireles will make up the midfield. Torres will start up top supported either side by Mata and the improving Sturridge. After Luiz's mixed display last week Ivanovic should start along side Terry at the back.
Predicted Chelsea Lineup :
Cech, Bosingwa, Ivanovic, Terry, Cole, Meireles, Mikel, Lampard, Sturridge, Torres, Mata.
Arsenal
Wenger's Arsenal has all of a sudden crept up into 7th place following their 3rd win in 5 games. Arsenal has 13pts from a possible 27 and trail 4th placed Newcastle by 6pts. I don't want to write Arsenal off the title but realistically coming in the top 4 is their goal for the season. If they can come to the Bridge and win as they did in 2008 then they will send a real statement of intent to those (like myself) that have written them off this season.
Arsenal are on their best run of the season at the moment with 3 wins from their last 4. The Gunners have seen off Bolton (3-0), Sunderland (2-1) and Stoke (3-1) with the defeat at Spurs (2-1) in the middle of those games.
It's interesting that at home they have a great record of 4 wins from 5 yet away they are winless with 3 defeats from 4 games. The side has certainly improved in recent weeks and is a much better side that got dismantled at United earlier in the season. I feel this is a good test for them as their confidence is high right and they won't fear Chelsea.
The away form as mentioned above isn't great, the defeats at Blackburn (4-3), United (8-2), Tottenham (2-1) all came after the opening day draw at Newcastle (0-0). The Arsenal away run is really bad right now and going further back into last season it doesn't get better. In their last 10 away games Arsenal has just 1 win over Blackpool and that came in April! If they do beat Chelsea it would have been one hell of effort or knowing the Blues they ended the game with 9 again!
Team news is that Gibbs and Jenkinson are doubts whilst Almunia, Benayoun, Sagna, Wilshere and Diaby miss out. Wenger is likely to go with Djourou at right back again with Santos at left back. As ever Van Persie is the threat going forward with 9 goals this season already, he is supported by Walcott and Gervinho.
Predicted Arsenal Lineup :
Szczesny, Djourou, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Santos, Arteta, Song, Ramsey, Walcott, van Persie, Gervinho.
The Betting Verdict
At first look, the odds for Arsenal look massive. You can back the Gunners at 5/1 which indicated 20% chance of winning, I'd rate Arsenal at around 25% so for me this carries value.
However, I can't back Arsenal not against my beloved Chelsea who despite playing with 9 looked very good last week. Villas-Boas has the side playing at a fast tempo both offensively and defensively and it seems to be working.
I think the safest bet in this is to take both teams to score which is still available at 1.75 with Bluesquare.
The Gunners have scored in 9 of their last 10 away games whilst Chelsea hasn't been shut out at home in any of their last 10 home games. Both defences are giving the opposition at least one goal and this could be a winner by half time. The Blues should win this by a narrow scoreline but I fear Arsenal may shock a few this weekend.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Both to Score - YES at 1.75
