English Premier
2011-10-29 - Everton vs Manchester United
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 29th October - Kickoff 12:00pm
Everton
David Moyes's Everton rose 2 places into 13th following their late win at Fulham last week. The win ended a horrible run of 3 straight defeats, however the side soon tasted defeat again as Chelsea beat the Toffees in extra time during their midweek Carling Cup tie. In less than 72 hours after that long game with Chelsea, Everton host champions United at Goodison in what looks a very tough game for the home side.
Being able to predict the nature of Everton games has been incredibly difficult this season. The Toffees lost at home to QPR (0-1) on opening day but then won at a tricky Ewood Park (1-0), a draw and a win followed (v Villa (2-2), v Wigan 3-1) before they hit their purple patch.
Back to back to back losses to City (2-0), Chelsea (3-1) and Liverpool (2-0) really hurt the club in terms of points as well as moral with Everton looking really poor. They did have their fair share of bad luck in these games but given they only scored 1 goal and that came when 3-0 down at Chelsea it's hardly inspiring stuff.
The home form generally isn't good enough by Everton's standards with just 1 win in their 4 home games with 2 defeats. The losses to QPR and Liverpool were not expected and only a poor Wigan side has been beaten by Moye's side this season when at home. Against United, they will need to play much better if they are to salvage anything fron the game.
Team news is that Anichebe, McFadden and Drenthe will miss out whilst Cahill is a doubt for the game following a knock in the midweek Carling Cup defeat to Chelsea. I'm expecting the Aussie to shake off his knock and play for the Everton, had Drenthe not been suspended I think Moyes would have kept the Aussie on the bench. However, his side needs him and he should start in behind Saha. Neville should get another start in the midfield and has the job of picking up Rooney when he drops deep. The back 4 and keeper are ever present and will look to add to their poor clean sheet tally of 1 so far this season.
Predicted Everton Lineup :
Howard, Hibbert, Jagielka, Distin, Baines, Neville, Fellaini, Rodwell,Osman, Cahill, Saha.
Manchester United
Wow, 6-1! Seriously who had that down as a single last week? For those who don't know what I'm talking about, United hosted City last week and were annihilated 6-1. That might sound strong but City really did give them a good going over and this was at Old Trafford where United didn't lost a game last season. Still it's just 1 game and if the bounce back against Everton at the weekend, the pressure is back on City to keep winning.
Whilst the result was a poor one against City, United still remain in a strong position in the league. With 20pts from a possible 27 the currently occupy 2nd place and trail City by 5 points. In the past we have seen United come back from much larger deficits to win the title and we have no idea how City will cope with the pressure of being league leaders.
Ferguson has been there and done it, the defeat has hurt him but he knows how to get the side winning again and it would not shock me if they now go on a long unbeaten run. This starts at Goodison on Saturday, a tricky game but with Everton fatigued from their long tie against Chelsea I think United can win this game.
The away form for United is the 3rd best in the league with 2 wins and 2 draws from their 4 games. United has dropped points at Stoke (1-1) and Liverpool (1-1), two very tough places to visit whilst beating WBA (2-1) and Bolton (5-0).
United have a ton of goals in them, they currently average just under 3 goals a game going forward whilst conceding around 1 goal. The City game was a freak result but their defence has looked shaky lately. The only bonus is that Everton are not the biggest scorers in the league and this is very timely for United who have kept just 1 clean sheet away from home all season..
Team news is that Gibson is out for United but the rest of the side is fit. As a result Rooney and Hernandez will start up top with Wellbeck dropping to the bench. The midfield looks settled with Anderson and Fletcher in the middle whilst Young and Nani provide the width. At the back, the centre back pairing of Rio and Vidic should be reunited and United will be glad following Evans shocking performance last weekend.
Predicted Man United Lineup :
De Gea, Jones, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, Nani, Fletcher, Anderson, Young, Hernández, Rooney.
The Betting Verdict
The early kick off wont do Everton any favours after they fielded a strong side midweek and played for 120 minutes. United played their reserves and had their game a day earlier, so not only are they the better side but they are the rested side.
I really don't want to lay United this weekend, they are a wounded animal and should come out all guns blazing. Ferguson must have given his players a right grilling this week and as a result I expect them to put in a solid performance on Saturday that will give them all 3pts.
United don't have a great recent head to head at Everton, not winning any of the last 3 but before that they did win the previous 3. The away side has found the net in 5 of their last 6 visits and with Everton struggling for form I think they will get at least one.
At the other end United's defence has conceded at least once in 5 of their last 6 away games with Everton failing to score in just 2 of their last 10 at Goodison.
I think United's class will eventually tell in this one, even more so with Everton tiring as the game goes on. The early kick off worries me a little but I'm going to take both United to win and for Over 2.50 goals as singles. However, my main bet will be the overs as I feel United can clear this themselves whilst Everton could chip in with at least one goal. Away Win.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Everton 1-3 Man United
