English Premier
2011-10-22 - Aston Villa vs West Brom
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 22nd October - Kickoff 15:00pm
Aston Villa
McLeish's Villa lost their unbeaten status following Man City's 4-1 demolition at the Ethiad last week. Still 7 games without a loss before the game as well as sitting 8th in the league means the Villa fans are happy with their team's start. On Saturday they host WBA in the derby which is the perfect game to bounce back with and win following last weeks loss.
The problem for Villa is that they just draw too many games and this is because of their manger's philosophy of don't lose first and then go for the win if possible. In 8 games this season, Villa has been held on 5 occasions which is 63% of their games.
The positive, is that the side is hard to beat but the negative is that had they gone for the win and lost an extra game their points would be higher now.
When focusing on the home form, Villa is a much stronger side than on the road. With 4 games played, Villa have 2 wins and 2 draws with a goal difference of plus 4. The wins have come against Wigan (2-0) and Blackburn (3-1) whilst Wolves (0-0) and Newcastle (1-1) held them in games that Villa could easily have won had they taken their chances.
With Bent and Agbonlahor up top there is a real threat and high potential for goals. The pair have accounted for 6 of Villa's 10 goals this season and both look decent shouts to score anytime this weekend at odds against.
McLeish has certainly worked his defensive wonders at Villa Park with 3 clean sheets this season which is joint 4th best in the league. Yet the side has only won once when keeping a cleaning sheet which is alarming. The good news for Villa fans is that only twice have they conceded more than 1 goal and both times have come on the road. Villa has kept 2 clean sheets at home and conceded just 2 goals at Villa Park in 4 games.
Team news is that Delfouneso and Jenas miss out whilst Collins is a doubt and should return for this weekend's derby. N'Zogbia and Albrighton are both pushing for starts but will most likely be relegated to the bench. Ireland looks set to start in midfield alongside Delph, Petrov and Bannan who has had an excellent season. The defence is settled and should keep thins tight against the Baggies.
Predicted Aston Villa Lineup :
Given, Hutton, Collins, Dunne, Warnock, Bannan, Petrov, Ireland, Delph, Bent, Agbonlahor.
West Brom
The Baggies moved up 5 places from 17th to 12th last weekend following the derby win over Wolves. This week they face another Midlands side and it may be too much asking for back to back performances in high pressure games from Hodgson's side.
The Baggies started the season slowly losing their first 3 games of the season to United, Chelsea and Stoke. They finally won away at Norwich only to lose next time out to Swansea. However, Hodgson appears to have turned the corner with his side unbeaten in the last 3 registering 1 win and 2 draws.
In the recent 3 game unbeaten run, WBA drew 0-0 with Fulham and then at Sunderland 2-2 after going 2-0 up inside 10 minutes but finally got their second win of the season beating Wolves 2-0 at the Hawthorns last Sunday.
West Brom has a symmetrical form line for home and away games both read played 4, won 1 , drawn 1 and 2 losses which in terms of away form is the 11 best in the league.
The win came at Norwich (1-0) with the draw at Sunderland (2-2) and the defeats were to Chelsea (2-1) and Swansea (3-0). From these games the good thing is the side has scored in half their games but the bad news is they have conceded 2 or more in 3 of them and with Bent and Agbonlahor looking sharp it could be a long afternoon for WBA's back 4.
Team news is that WBA has doubts over Tamas, Reid and Mulumbu but no one is ruled out indefinitely. Odemwingie has had a slow start to the season but in recent weeks has looked his old self and he got himself a goal last week in the win over Wolves. He is likely to start with Tchoyi likely to drop to the bench with Long getting the other starting place. Shorey was dropped last time out and with Jones doing ok, I expect him to keep his place.
Predicted West Brom Lineup :
Foster, Reid, McAuley, Olsson, Jones, Brunt, Scharner. Mulumbu, Thomas, Odemwingie, Long.
The Betting Verdict
Villa has had the edge in recent years winning the last 2 encounters 2-1 with both teams scoring in 4 of the 5 encounters.
I think Villa is the better play this weekend but their "happy to take a point" policy worries me. McLeish knows a derby win will get the fans behind him and he doesn't want a repeat of the negative backlash he faced following the 0-0 draw to Wolves earlier in the season.
The Villa price around evens is a good one and I think offers some value but instead I'll stick with both teams to score as I just can't trust McLeish just yet.
In the last 10 away games, WBA has scored in 9 of them and has kept just 1 clean sheet. Villa has kept a few clean sheets at home lately, but I can't help but feel they will let WBA attack them and all it takes is 1 chance for the Baggies and they could punish Villa.
When watching Villa they don't press thigh up the field instead they allow the opposition to come forward and like defending deep in their own half. As a result I feel WBA will see plenty of the ball and given the high goals history in this fixture I think this is safer than a Villa win.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Aston Villa 2-1 West Brom
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Both Teams to Score: YES at 1.83 @ Stan James
