English Premier
2011-10-22 - Bolton vs Sunderland
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Saturday 22nd October - Kickoff 15:00pm
Bolton
Bolton's start to the season has been really poor with Coyle's men finding themselves in the bottom 3 after 8 games played. Wanderers did win their last game to move them off bottom to 18th but with just 6 points to their name the pressure is on. This week at home to Sunderland, Coyle must take at least a point to try and build some forward momentum.
Wanderers beat QPR 4-0 on opening day in emphatic style and seemed to put behind them the shocking decline from the back end of last season. However, a run of 6 straight defeats which is the worst run by any side this season saw them drop right down to the foot of the table. Fortunately for them, Bolton stopped the rot with a 3-1 win at Wigan last week and Wanderers fans are praying it's the start of a positive run.
Within that run of 6 games Bolton did play some very good sides in particular Man City (3-2), Liverpool (3-1), Man United (5-0), Chelsea (5-1)and Arsenal (3-0) whilst the 2-1 loss to Norwich was a bit of a shock. The good news is that after playing all these elite sides Bolton bounced back to beat a Wigan side also low on confidence. Bolton will come into this one with much higher spirits than they did before the Wigan game and that will really help their cause on Saturday afternoon.
The home form is a little skewed as on paper it looks as though Bolton are a shocking side with 4 games played and 4 defeats! But when you consider those losses have come against United, City, Chelsea and ok Norwich isn't great but the first 3 are all sides that could win the Champions League!
The worry for Bolton has been goals conceded in home games, 15 conceded in 4 games is an average of 3.75 a game! You may argue that they all came against the elite sides but Norwich got 2 here and that was before they were high on confidence. Bolton has only kept 1 clean sheet and that was on opening day, I think we may see the ball in the Bolton net at least once this weekend.
Team news is that Alonso, Davis, Lee, Holden, Mears and Ricketts are all out for Bolton. N'Gog sh0ould keep his place up front ahead of Klasnic after his goal last week and will partner Davies. The midfield has some creativity from out wide with Petrov and Eagles very good players. At the back Knight should be left on the bench with Wheater partnering Cahill in the middle for Wanderers.
Predicted Bolton Lineup :
Jääskeläinen, Boyata, Cahill, Wheater, Robinson, Eagles, Reo-Coker, Pratley, Petrov, Davies, Ngog.
Sunderland
The side directly above Bolton in 17th place is Sunderland. Another boss under pressure is Bruce who spent a great deal this summer, virtually signing a new team but his side just hasn't gelled. With just 1 win all season and 6 points as well, Sunderland is only out of the bottom 3on goal difference. Both sides didn't expect this to be a relegation 6 pointer, but with both clubs desperate for points it could be a cracker.
Sunderland started the year excellently with a draw at Liverpool, they then lost at home to Newcastle, drew at Swansea and then lost again at home this time to Chelsea. It's been that sort of season for Sunderland, so much promise then lots of disappointment.
They did beat Stoke in their sole win in mid September only to go on a 3 game run without a win including 2 losses. Last time out they visited Arsenal and just as they did at Anfield, they equalised after going behind and had chances to go in front. But just like Anfield they didn't take their chances and Arsenal eventually got the winner.
The away form is just the 15th best in the division, winless on the road with 2 draws from 4 games played. Still that looks impressive compared to Bolton's 4 games and 4 losses at home!
The 2 away points have come in the first 2 away games 1-1 at Liverpool followed by 0-0 at Swansea in August. But since then Norwich thoroughly outplayed them in a 2-1 win whilst last time out Arsenal, who were not at their best still got the all important 3 points in a 2-1 win.
The good news for Sunderland fans is that they have scored in their last 5 games whilst finding the net in 3 of their 4 away games so there is promise for the side.
Team news is that Angeleri, Bramble, Campbell, Gordon, Gyan and Larsson all miss this one through injury, suspension and in Gyan's case a loan exit out of the club. The loss of Larsson is a big one after his stunning goals at Arsenal and Liverpool this season has got Sunderland back in games they looked like losing heavily. He is also a very creative player and the strikers will miss his excellent delver from out wide. Sessegnon is expected to slot in out wide with Bendtner returning after missing the Arsenal game. Wickham should get a start to along side the Danish striker in what else is an unchanged lineup.
Predicted Sunderland Lineup :
Mignolet, O'Shea, Brown, Turner, Bardsley, Sessegnon, Colback, Vaughan, Richardson, Wickham, Bendtner.
The Betting Verdict
This should be a very open attacking game of football with both better going forward than defending. Bolton must start winning at home whilst Sunderland need to get in front on the road instead of falling behind as they have done in all 3 of their away games where goals have been scored.
The Mackems do have a decent recent record here at the Reebok with 2 away wins and a draw in the last 3 meetings. Sunderland has avoided defeat in 5 of their last 10 away games winning 2 in the process, what is encouraging is that in 5 of the last 6 away games they have found the net.
Interestingly, Bolton's last 10 home games have seen 0 draws with the home side 4-0-6 with 8 games going over 2.50 goals.
I can't see this being a 1-0 game, both seem to be able to score as well as concede with ease so I'm attracted to the overs and both to score market.
With both teams to score some 20-30 clicks lower than overs I'll roll the dice and go for over 2.50 goals which is priced at evens with Bet365. So long as this isn't 0-0 at HT I'm expecting this to cash.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bolton 3-2 Sunderland
