NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - UCF KNIGHTS @ UAB BLAZERS

NCAA Football

2011-10-20 - UCF Knights at UAB Blazers

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

UCF KNIGHTS @ UAB BLAZERS
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Thursday, October 20th, 2011, 8:00PM US
(1:00AM GMT)

---

PREVIEW

The point spread for this one opened at 14.5 and has moved to 16, but still sits between the key numbers of 14 and 17.

UAB Blazers are at home, but they haven't won a game yet in 6 attempts. The UCF Knights are 3-3, and looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss. Only one team in it, in my opinion, but do they cover the spread?

This is a Conference USA match-up, and UCF have absolutely owned UAB in the series, winning 7 of 8 meetings. Last season, the Knights won 42-7, and UAB have not been much better on offence this season. At home, where they should be better, UAB are averaging just 6.5 points, while allowing 35.

Overall, the Blazers are scoring just over 13 points per game, and struggling equally through the air and on the ground. They're managing just 100 yards per game and Pat Shed is their leading rusher, with just 223 yards in total. Their QB Bryan Ellis has thrown 2 TD passes and been intercepted 5 times, throwing for just 743 yards at a poor 53% completion rate. Jonathan Perry, the other QB, has worse numbers, no TD and a completion rate well below 50%.

Both those scores came in last weeks match, where they did very well comparatively to the rest of their games. UAB lost to Tulsa 37-20, and both of Ellis' TD passes came in that game.

Obviously, it's the defence that is a problem here, as UAB are useless in defending the pass and the ground attack. Teams are racking up 292 yards through the air against UAB, and 223 yards on the ground, leaving UAB 113th in the country!

The only reason UAB lost by just 17 points on the road last week was because they somehow came up with 4 turnovers, and scored their firs 2 passing TDs of the year. That wont happen here because UCF are a conference foe coming off a loss and looking to vent their anger. Who better to beat up on than a weaker opponent.

UCF are 3-3, but their 38-17 loss last week to SMU was the 3rd in 4 games after a winning start to the season. UCF are 1-1 in conference action and with this game being on National TV they will be eager to make a statement after being humiliated.

UCF have done most of their damage through the ground game, and surprisingly it is the QB Jeff Godfrey who has scored 8 rushing TDs to lead the scoring on the ground. He has 228 rushing yards while Brynn Harvey leads the team with 392. Through the air, Godfrey has 1,118 yards and 2 TDs with 2 picks and is keeping things moving with his 68% pass completion.

Tulsa managed to run comfortably against UAB, gaining 218 yards, while the passing yielded 341 yards and 3 TDs. I expect a win by at least the same number here as UAB will be unlikely to perform like they did last week.

BETTING VERDICT

I like UCF to win here, and since there is the small chance of them easing up later, perhaps the 1st half spread will be best as they jump to a quick lead.

The Pick :