Champions League
2011-10-19 - Chelsea vs Genk
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Europe : Champions League
Wednesday 19th October - Kickoff 7:45pm
Chelsea
The West Londoners currently occupy top spot in Group with 4 points. However this group is far from over and despite taking a good point last time out in Valencia, the side was minutes away from an important win only to be denied at the death. Coach Villas-Boas wasn't happy that night and I feel Genk may be on the end of a dominating Chelsea performance this Wednesday.
2 played, 4 points, an opening day win against Leverkusen (2-0), not a great game but Chelsea got the points which is all that matters. Then in Valencia, the Blues took the lead through Lampard but Kalou decided to handle the ball from a cross when marking the shortest man on the pitch to give away a penalty. Soldado calmly dispatched that spot kick and Chelsea instead of being 3 pts clear only has a 1 pt lead over Leverkusen.
The Chelsea home form in Europe is very good with 4 wins in the last 6 games. The two sides to leave Stamford Bridge with any kind of result were last season's Champions League finalists United (W 0-1) and Danish side Copenhagen (0-0). In the other 4 games, Chelsea disposed of Zilina (2-1), Leverkusen (2-0), Spartak Moscow (4-1) and Marseille (2-0).
I rate Genk as somewhere in between Leverkusen and Spartak from that list above but either way, Chelsea disposed of both and whilst the odds are shocking this looks a home win however you look and analyse it.
Team news is that Torres will start as he's banned domestically meaning Drogba could lose his place. But given the lack of games for the Ivorian lately I think both will start which may mean Mata or Sturridge gets a break. In midfield Ramires joins Essien on the treatment table so Mikel will join Lampard and Merieles in the engine room. Luiz may get the nod over Ivanovic at centre half in a familiar looking 4-3-3 lineup.
Predicted Man City Lineup:
Cech, Cole, Terry, Luiz, Bosingwa, Mikel, Lampard, Merieles, Mata, Drogba, Torres.
Genk
New Boss Been has a massive task ahead of him as Genk looks to become the first side to win at Stamford Bridge in a Champions League group game since 2003. That's a run of 24 games and with Chelsea on a roll domestically this looks a tall ask to get a point let alone all 3.
Still Been's side has already been underestimated in this year's competition with the bookies pricing Valencia incredibly short against them at the Cristal Arena on match day one. The Belgians held their own and took a point in that game, shocking many neutrals who have not seen much of this side.
In game week 2 they fell behind in the first have to Leverkusen in Germany and despite creating some good openings they couldn't score and lost 2-0 in the end.
Both performances have shown promise and moments of real class but the fact that they have yet to score is a major worry for me in this game. I guess the only bonus is they visit a side that has 1 domestic clean sheet all season although Chelsea did keep a clean sheet in game week when when they hosted Leverkusen.
In the last 6 away games in the Champions League, Genk has really struggled losing 4 of their last 6 although thus goes back to 2002. Their best performances have been 2 draws at Roma (0-0) and at AEK Athens (1-1), however losses to Leverkusen (2-0), Maccabi Haifa (2-1), Real Madrid (6-0) and Sparta Prague (4-2) hardly inspire confidence.
As I said some of those games go back nearly 10 years ago so we can possibly discount them. Yet we can't discount the domestic form so far with just 3 wins in 10 games and losing the last 2 coming into the game against Chelsea seems a massive task.
The Genk side has not been helped with huge defensive injuries to Hubert, Simaeys and Joneleit all staying at home, whilst Nadsen is a huge doubt. Things are so bad that winger Pudil has been playing at fullback and up against Chelsea's front 3 this could get messy.
Genk do have de Bruyne in midfield and this classy midfielder has been tracked by Chelsea all summer. This may be his audition a good game here could seal a January move for the youngster.
Predicted Genk Lineup:
Koteles, Ngongca, Masuero, Vanden Borre, Pudil, Hyland, De Bruyne,, Buffel, Tozser, Ogunjimi, Barda
The Betting Verdict
Chelsea should/will win this game but at 1.13 unless I had some £2k to whack down I'd not go near it whatsoever!
Instead I will look towards the anytime goal scorer market with Torres priced a massive 1.85 at Unibet. Some bookies have this as 1.44 (Bet365) so we are getting a massive price here. Unibet also refunds if the player doesn't start so that's a bonus.
El Nino is up against a makeshift back line on Wednesday and should find space to get chances. Chelsea is creating bag fulls of chances at the moment and he'll surely get 1/2 golden moments to score.
Before his red card he was looking sharp and hungry bagging a few goals in the process. With a point to prove I want El Nino on my side and at that price its a must bet for me. Home Win.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Chelsea 3-0 Genk
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Torres anytime scorer at 1.85 at Unibet
