Champions League
2011-10-18 - Manchester City vs Villarreal
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Europe : Champions League
Tuesday 18th October - Kickoff 7:45pm
Manchester City
Winless after 2 games and all of a sudden the pressure is on for Mancini's men. There are still 12 points to play for so there is still time for City to even win the group but no one expected them to start so slowly. This Tuesday they host Spanish side Villarreal at the Ethiad Stadium knowing a win is essential to qualification.
So far in 2 Champions League game weeks, City has yet to register a win. Playing once at home on opening night, Napoli visited the Ethiad and thoroughly outplayed City for large spells eventually taking the lead only for City to wake up in the last 15 minutes to take a point.
In the next game at group leaders Bayern, City were comprehensively outplayed by their German counterparts as Mancini's men went down 2-0. To be fair to Man City, they did have a very good opening 20 minutes but created little despite their high possession. Once Bayern got going their class was too good for City as they didn't give the boys in blue a sniff for over 70 minutes of football.
I can't really look at City's home form in the competition as it;s a sample size of 1 game! Instead I'll look at the domestic form where in 4 games, City has registered 4 wins and up until the weekend went over 9 and a half hours before conceding a goal. Those are some frightening stats and with City really needing to win I like their chances at home, more so after they dropped points to Napoli.
Team news is that key striker Aguero returned to training on Monday and is pushing for a recall to the lineup. City striker Sergio Aguero trained on Monday ahead of a possible return against Villarreal after being rested against Villa at the weekend.
Aguero is an obvious swap for Balotelli, who serves the final game of a three-match European suspension, whilst outcast Tevez won't be anywhere near the matchday squad.
The other risk is that Richards won't make this once after a head injury at the weekend. I think he will make it but if not Zabaleta is a capable understudy. Other than that it's as you were with Nasri, Silva and Dzeko all big threats for City when going forward.
Predicted Man City Lineup:
Hart, Richards, Kompany, Toure, Clichy, De Jong, Yaya, Nasri, Silva, Dzeko, Aguero.
Villarreal
The yellow submarine has suffered the worst possible start to Group A, even worse than City, with 2 defeats in 2 games. This is as big a game for them as it is for the hosts and they really can't go 0-3 after this round of games.
Juan Carlos Garrido has done an excellent job with this team finishing 4th in his first year in charge. But this year Villarreal has found it hard going both domestically and in Europe.
In game week 1 of the Champions League Villarreal, like Man City in week 2 were thoroughly outclassed by group leaders Bayern in a 2-0 defeat.
Week 2, saw them travel to Naples and against they scummed to defeat again 2-0. The Spaniards were 2 down inside 20 minutes and just never got going. From both games we haven't seen the real Villarreal turn up and I'm expecting a much better performance this week when they visit Manchester. If they lose this game then they must win both their final group games to City and Napoli whilst hoping they can get something from Germany which even then may not be enough.
The domestic away form isn't great either, 4 games on the road and the side remains winless. 2 draws and 2 defeats has seen them slide down the table in 14th place. Garrido's side has lost 5-0 at Barca and 1-0 to Granada, however they did draw at Bilboa (1-1) and Getafe last time out (0-0). The away form is only the 13th best in the league and considering how good City are at home this could get ugly if the English side scores early.
The only team news i've found is that Nilmar is a long term absentee meaning Rossi will be Villarreal's main striker. Just behind him Ruben should get the nod as the Yellow Submarine comes out in 4-4-1-1 formation. Senna and Cani are very classy players whilst Marchena and Zapata will have their hands full at the back.
Predicted Villarreal Lineup:
Diego Lopez, Zapata, Marchena, Gonzalo, Catala, Cani, Bruno, Senna, De Guzman, Ruben, Rossi.
The Betting Verdict
As much as I like City here the 1.33 is very tight from the layers. Yes City is undefeated at home domestically with 4 wins from 4 and Villarreal are winless on the road all season but lets not forget City has been dominated in both Champions Leagues games this season.
Villarreal are "due" a performance and we may see it on Tuesday night and there may be some value in the Asian Market of +1.50. However, I like the thought of goals in this one as I think Villarreal will finally get their first goal of the campaign.
Defending all game will ultimately mean defeat, so why not attack like Napoli did and with Rossi they have a real goal threat. However, by them attacking it opens up gaps and spaces for City and whilst I think Mancini's men will prosper I prefer the over market as opposed to any Asian or fixed odd punts. Home Win.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Man City 3-1 Villarreal
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Over 2.75 goals at 1.85 @ Pinnaclesports
