English Premier
2011-10-15 - Wigan vs Bolton Wanderers
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 15 October 2011 - Kickoff 3pm
Wigan
Roberto Martinez must have questioned himself over the international break about whether he had made the correct decision in staying with Wigan rather than moving to a bigger club when he had the chance over the Summer. The Latics have struggled in the early part of the season and now face a huge clash.
Wigan are 18th in the Premier League table, and have only gained 5 points from their first 7 games of the season, all of those coming against the teams that were promoted last season. They are 1-1-1 at home this season, scoring 4 goals and conceding 3.
The international break may just have come at the right time for Wigan as they entered it off the back of 5 consecutive defeats in all competitions, 4 of those coming in the Premier League. A lack of goals was going to be a worry for the side, especially when Hugo Rodallega was ruled out for a few months, but they are conceding far too many, with their opponents scoring at least 2 goals in each of the last 5 games.
However, Wigan lost just 1 of those 5 games at the DW Stadium, and they had been unbeaten in 6 at home before losing to Tottenham Hotspur in their last game.
Rodallega is out for a few months, while Antolin Alcaraz is also missing. Wigan have no other injury worries.
Bolton Wanderers
While Wigan have had a tough start to the new season, it is still a lot brighter than down the road at the Reebok Stadium where all the pre-season fears of the Bolton fans have seemingly come true. Bolton can't score enough goals, concede far too many, and have been on a serious downward spiral since before the end of last season.
After the start to the season, when Bolton won 0-4 at QPR, you wouldn't have thought that would be their only points gained this season as they proceeded to lose 6 straight Premier League games. Unsurprisingly, Bolton are bottom of the League, but that goes along with the worst defence that has conceded 21 goals. Bolton are 1-0-2 away from home, scoring 5 goals and conceding 6.
The Trotters only other wins this season outside of the QPR game have come against Macclesfield and Aston Villa in the Carling Cup, but they have been awful in the League. Since the clean sheet at Loftus Road, Bolton have conceded at least 3 goals in 5 of their next 6 games, the only exception being the 2 they conceded to Norwich. Bolton are 1-1-13 in their last 15 away games in the Premier League, losing 7 of their last 8.
Jussi Jaaskelainan should return to the side after missing the 1-5 loss against Chelsea when his understudy, Adam Bogdan, had a nightmare. There are a few long term injuries in the squad, but Owen Coyle has no new injury worries to contend with.
Head to Head
Goals have been rare when these two sides play one another, with the last 9 games only seeing 3 or more goals scored on 1 occasion.
The last 3 Premier League games here have seen the sides share the points on each occasion, and there has been a total of 2 goals scored in those games.
Bolton did win here in the FA Cup last season 0-1, which means the last 5 games at the DW Stadium between the two teams have all finished with 2 goals or less scored.
Prediction
I can understand the layers position in making the 'Over 2.5 Goals' the shorter option in that market considering the way both teams have been defending of late, but I think the 'Unders' has to be the play here.
Neither side has been firing in attack and that means the defences may get a chance to get on top even though they have been struggling badly.
You can also imagine both management and coaching staffs have been working on that side of the game for the last couple of weeks and trying to bring in a system that will prevent a repeat of some of the recent games they have played.
The importance of the game is not to be underestimated either as both sides are desperate to stop their own runs of losing games. This could lead to a cautious approach by both teams whose confidence is not going to be great considering their recent results.
My biggest concern is that an early goal could open up the floodgates for the side that gets it, but recent history also shows the tight games they have played in this North West Derby and I will go for another tight game on Saturday.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Wigan 0-0 Bolton Wanderers
