NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - USC @ CALIFORNIA

NCAA Football

2011-10-13 - USC at California

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

USC TROJANS (4-1) @ CALIFORNIA BEARS (3-2)
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Thursday, October 13th, 2011, 9:00PM US
(2:00AM GMT)

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PREVIEW

California can score, there is no question about that, and it showed in the 1st half against Oregon last week. California scored a 15 but that was not enough as in the 2nd half they got blown away by the Ducks and their offensive drives fell short. Basically, they came out strong but fell away late. This is their story.

California have Zach Maynard as QB and he has thrown 11 TDs and just 3 interceptions so far but the stats reveal he is not that efficient. He is ranked 10th in passing efficiency in the Pac-12 and that is because he is only completing 51% of his passes! While they do get yardage and score points, the Golden Bears are also bad at 3rd down conversions. Last week, they converted just 5 of 17 such chances.

The defence has always been weak against the pass, but Oregon tore them on the ground too. The Ducks managed to get 365 rushing yards and scored 6 TDs against the California defence, who are allowing over 13 yards per pass completion.

While California can score, they are coming up against another team who can do so better than them, USC beat them 48-14 last year and are off some impressive results this season, to sit at 4-1. USC beat Arizona 48-41 in their last match, and QB Matt Barkley was in imperious form, throwing for a school record 468 yards with 4 TDs, completing 32 of his 39 attempts! His main target was Robert Woods, the best receiver in the country. Woods hauled in 14 catches for 255 yards and 2 trips to the endzone.

I reckon USC will throw early and often against California, who cannot defend the pass. USC defend decently against the rush, which means California will have to go with it's strength too, and throw the ball. In the end, the clock will be slowed down and this will turn into a shootout.

I was going to recommend having a good look at the Over, which was set at 55 but has now jumped to almost 59! But what's this, USC has come down a precious 0.5 point to sit at -3?

BETTING VERDICT

USC have won 9 of the last 10 meetings with California, and are on a 7 game winning streak against the Golden Bears, allowing an average of just 10 points!

With this game being a shootout, it's worth just stacking up the QBs against each other and comparing:

USC - Barkley - 70% completion, 1,587 yards, 14 TDs, 4 INT
CAL - Maynard - 51% completion, 1,291 yards, 11 TDs, 3 INT

Oh, and USC are rested here, just off a bye week. No brainer.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take USC to win @ 1.68 (Pinnacle)