NFL Football
2011-10-10 - Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NFL
Monday, October 10th, 2011, 8:30PM US
(1:30AM GMT)
PREVIEW
The Detroit Lions have not had a Monday Night appearance since 2001, not that they like to remember that day. On the national stage with everyone watching, they went down 35-0 to the St. Louis Rams. It's not been a happy decade since then, as the Lions have 10 consecutive losing seasons. They've not seen the playoffs since 1999 and every year they get put on national TV and get stuffed along with the Turkey on Thanksgiving Day. Until now.
There are only 2 unbeaten teams left in the NFL. One of them is the reigning Superbowl Champions, the unstoppable Green Bay Packers. The other? The Detroit Lions. Yep, the Lions are 4-0 and are actually on the longest active regular season run by any team, winning 8 straight. They are also on a franchise record run of 5 consecutive road wins. Now they face the Chicago Bears, and there is one streak there they will be eager to end - Chicago have beaten them the last 6 times they've met.
Detroit might be 4-0 but not without some difficulty. Last week, they were in a 27-3 hole in the 3rd quarter before they roared back to win 34-30. QB Matt Stafford has been combining with Calvin Johnson to perfection, and hit him with 2 TD passes in the 4th quarter to give the Lions that comeback win. In fact, this was the 2nd consecutive time the Lions had come back from over 20 points down to win, which had never been done before.
The Chicago Bears aren't being given a chance here, dogged by 5 points and not really touched by the public, who are loving the Lions. They are 2-2, but look who they've played. Green Bay, Atlanta and New Orleans. That's 3 straight playoff teams, 2 of which won the Superbowl in the last 2 years! They were still 1-2 and got the win over Carolina last week to even up their record. Carolina are led by Cam Newton, who helped his team go through the Bears for about 545 yards. What is very encouraging is the number of points the Bears scored, 34 and 30, in those wins. Equally worrying is the number of points they scored in the losses, 13 and 17.
Last week the Bears were able to win because of 2 plays the offence had nothing to do with. DJ Moore made an interception and ran it back for a TD, and Devin Hester had a punt return for a TD too, his 11th, more than anyone else in NFL history. QB Jay Cutler, who has never lost against Detroit, did not try and lead this offence last week, and it worked, as the running game moved forward on the strength of Matt Forte. The Bears RB had 205 rushing yards last week, more than he has ever had over his career. Bizarrely, he was held to just 2 rushing yards the week before at Green Bay. That was his lowest output ever but then Green Bay are good against the run. Anyway, speaking of interceptions, the Detroit Lions Bobby Carpenter and Chris Houston both caught one each and turned them into TDs last week.
I'm torn here, to be honest. And the alarm bells in my head are going yet again. I had them when looking at the New Orleans game, backed off, and they failed to cover like I suspected. I suggested Atlanta to cover the 6 point spread against hardhitting Green Bay and as I type they have gone 14-0 up early in the 2nd quarter, and I'm sure most of the public are wondering WTF?
I'm going to trust my instincts here and not suggest Detroit on the spread. Sure, they find ways to win, are on a huge streak and are at home. But Chicago were the last team to beat them, and it was just 8 games ago. The Bears might not have a devastating offence, but their special teams and defence are always threatening to put points on the table.
BETTING VERDICT
Chicago have beaten Detroit 93 times in total, that's more wins than they have over any other team. They were also the last team to beat Detroit, back last season, before the Lions began this winning streak. They might not get the job done but I see Chicago giving them a hell of a game.
If Detroit put themselves in any more holes like they have been doing the last 2 games, they will lose this outright. I feel the last 2 weeks heroics will have taken their toll, and Chicago aren't exactly here to lose on MNF. Backdoor cover.
Take Chicago with the points start.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Chicago Bears to keep it close
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the Chicago Bears +5 @ 2.05 (Pinnacle)
