NFL Football
2011-10-10 - Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 5
Monday 10 October 2011 - Kick Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a big game in the NFC North and could see a change in fortunes for both of these sides depending how the result goes. The Chicago Bears (2-2) are the reigning NFC North Champions, but are already 2 games behind the Green Bay Packers and their opponents on Monday Night Football, the Detroit Lions (4-0).
The Lions have not been as surprising as some may expect, but they have shown immense character in coming back from large deficits in winning games at Minnesota and Dallas and they now have their first MNF game since 2001 as they are once again a relevant team.
Much of this is down to the Matthew Stafford-Calvin Johnson tandem that has already produced 8 TDs this season, with Johnson being the first receiver to grab 2 TD passes in each of the first 4 games of the season. Stafford has thrown for a lot of yards this season but don't be fooled just by the stats as they have had to throw to get back into games, particularly the last 2 weeks.
That is not to say anything bad about Stafford as I feel he is the one player that will make the biggest difference for Detroit this season- if they can keep Stafford healthy, the sky is the limit for the Lions.
Detroit should have plenty of success against a surprisingly poor Chicago Defense, especially in the early part of this season. They have been gashed through the air and on the ground and you have to think the Lions will be able to move the chains consistently through the game.
The Lions will also be giving Nick Fairley his debut alongside Ndamukong Suh and this Defense may just take a huge step upwards if Fairley can get things going. Detroit have protected their Secondary thanks to a team that has been able to find plenty of penetration into the backfield and this does not bode well for Jay Cutler and the Chicago Offensive Line that has struggled to keep their QB upright.
The Bears are giving up almost 4 sacks per game this season and you just have to think they are going to struggle to keep the Detroit pass rush off them. Mike Martz will need to keep Matt Forte in the game as the Chicago Offense does not have the balance that will stop teams rushing Cutler, and they did manage to do this last week in the win over Carolina.
It is possible to run on the Lions, but Martz can get bored of doing that and start calling crazy passing plays and that could be the key issue as to how this game is decided on Monday night.
Head to Head
Chicago have won the last 6 games in the series, although those games have been split 3-3 against the spread, and the Lions have won the last 2 games against the spread in the series.
The Bears have won 3 in a row at Detroit, going 2-1 against the spread in those games.
The road team is 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games of the series.
The underdog is 10-4 against the spread in the last 14 games of the series.
Detroit are 3-0-1 against the spread this season, Chicago are 1-3.
Other Interesting Trends
Detroit are 13-3-2 against the spread in the last 18 games against fellow NFC teams.
They have won their last 4 games against the spread as the home favourite.
However, they are just 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Chicago are 4-10-1 against the spread in their last 15 games as the road underdog.
They are 8-23 against the spread in their last 31 games as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Prediction
I do like the Detroit Lions in this spot for the following reasons:
First, I think the Chicago Offensive Line is going to have a long day against the Detroit Defense and they will leave Jay Cutler with no time to make throws and he will take a few sacks.
Second, I feel the Bears will not have the tools to slow down this Detroit Offense, especially Megatron who has started the season so well.
Third, the Lions should be completely up for hosting their first MNF game since 2001 and they can impress the nation.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Detroit Lions 27-17 Chicago Bears
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Detroit Lions -5 Points @ 1.95
