NFL Football
2011-10-09 - Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 5
Sunday 9 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a big spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) who need to put in a performance and win while under a lot of pressure with injuries and from the wolves who are sharpening their knives to carve the team up. They face a surprising Tennessee Titans (3-1) that have won 3 on the bounce under stellar play from Matt Hasselbeck.
Pittsburgh have been criticised for being old and slow and that is highlighted by the fact the Defense is getting torched by almost every opponent they have played, well every opponent worth their salt so I am not including Seattle or Indianapolis.
James Harrison will be missing this week so the pass rush of the Defense is going to be severely limited, but that may not even matter considering they have only secured 2 sacks this season. The biggest issue has been the uncharacteristic nature of the Steelers run Defense that has allowed 119 yards per game this season.
This should allow Chris Johnson to reach 100 yards for the 2nd week in succession after his early struggles had only helped the Titans to 66.8 yards per game on the season. Matt Hasselbeck has been the saviour of the team which is averaging 280 yards per game through the air although the absence of Kenny Britt may have an impact against the Steelers this week.
Ben Roethlisberger is going to start for the Steelers despite getting beat up in Houston last week and having to leave the stadium on crutches, but the Offensive Line is playing so badly that it seems it's only a matter of time before Big Ben is put out of a game for good. Pittsburgh have been unable to get a running game going so you can expect the Titans will be teeing off on Roethlisberger throughout the game.
Rashard Mendenhall is questionable for this game and that will not help a team that is struggling to move the chains on the ground.
Head to Head
Pittsburgh beat Tennessee without Ben Roethlisberger last season in Nashville and are now 3-1 in the last 4 games between the teams.
The teams have gone 4-4 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series.
Pittsburgh are 3-1 straight up in the last 4 games at home against Tennessee, but those games have been split 2-2 against the spread.
The underdog is 7-1 against the spread in the last 8 games of the series.
Pittsburgh are 1-3 against the spread this season, Tennessee are 2-2.
Other Interesting Trends
Pittsburgh have won their last 4 games against the spread as the home favourite.
However, they are just 2-13-1 against the spread in their last 16 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
Tennessee are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog.
Matt Hasselbeck is 14-21 against the spread in the game following his team winning back to back games.
Prediction
I'm going to be a big time square and take the Pittsburgh Steelers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Pittsburgh rarely lose two consecutive games under Mike Tomlin and you can be sure the Head Coach will have his team fired up.
Second, Tennessee are playing their second consecutive game on the road and that is a tough spot, especially when the second game is against Pittsburgh.
Third, I feel the Pittsburgh Defense is going to step up and prove they are not 'old and slow' as critics say.
Fourth, I think Tennessee are a tad overrated in this spot- yes, they have played some really good football over the last 3 weeks, but this is a different challenge on the road and I am not ready to trust them.
It is a square bet and one I am taking because I believe Pittsburgh are a better team than they have shown and I believe in Mike Tomlin's ability to get his team to bounce back from a loss. I won't be going in too heavy on this one though.
The Pick :
Pittsburgh Steelers 24-20 Tennessee Titans
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Pittsburgh Steelers -3 Points @ 1.85
