Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans Betting pick | 2011-10-09

NFL Football

2011-10-09 - Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
United States: NFL Football Week 5
Sunday 9 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

RIP Al Davis, 1929-2011
The Oakland Raiders (2-2) have received some truly bad news as their legendary owner passed away on Saturday morning. The team will already be in Texas in anticipation of their game against the Houston Texans (3-1) and it is sure to be an emotional day for all in Raider Nation.

The last act of Al Davis' life will have at least had him believing his team was once again becoming a force after a disappointing decade since they last reached the SuperBowl. They have been considered a bullying team that will use their size and speed to intimidate and defeat their opponents.

Confidence is also high in Oakland as Head Coach Hue Jackson believes his team are the best in the AFC West and he seriously thinks they have a shot at going deep into the Play Offs. This week should give us a good idea where they stand against a fellow AFC team that is going forward.

Houston have never made the Play Offs in their franchise history, but have all the makings of a team that will get there this season, especially considering the AFC South is considerably weaker now the Indianapolis Colts are missing Peyton Manning. Wade Phillips has worked really well to improve the Defense that was a clear weak point last season, while the Offense remains capable of putting up big points.

A big problem for the Texans in the immediate future is the absence of Andre Johnson- any team in the NFL would miss a quality wideout like Johnson who is arguably the best WR in the NFL along with his namesake, Calvin, in Detroit. That means Matt Schaub will look to Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones to pick up the load while Owen Daniels remains the safety blanket.

Arian Foster rushed for 155 yards last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers and he will be looking for another big game against an Oakland team that is giving up 5.9 yards per carry on the ground this season (last in the NFL). The running back will have to play well if he wants to keep the Oakland pass rush down considering they have had 11 sacks already this season.

Oakland themselves will be using the best back in the NFL, Darren McFadden, to help them move the chains as he has been doing all season. Houston have been giving up 4.9 yards per carry this season and have not played a running back even close to the calibre of McFadden.

Jason Campbell has been managing the game well for the Raiders too and has only thrown 3 Interceptions all season, although 1 was a fairly ridiculous one against the Patriots last week. However, as I said above, Houston are much improved in the Secondary this season and have held 3 of the 4 QBs they have faced to under 206 yards through the air, the only exception being Drew Brees.

The Defense is creating plenty of pressure too having secured 12 sacks this season, and the Raiders will have to get McFadden going to make sure this rush is held back enough to give Campbell time to make plays with his arm.

Head to Head

Houston are 5-1 straight up and against the spread in the 6 games they have played against Oakland.

They have won both their home games, straight up and against the spread, against the Raiders.

Houston beat Oakland by 7 points on the road last season.

Both teams are 3-1 against the spread this season.

Other Interesting Trends

Houston are 11-14 against the spread in their 25 games following a win since 2007.

They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a win.

They have won their last 4 games against the spread as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

Oakland are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a double digit loss at home.

Prediction

I liked the Oakland Raiders with the points in this game for the following reasons:

First, Houston are missing a huge piece in their Offense now Andre Johnson is out so they will find it harder to move the chains with their other receivers.

Second, I expect Darren McFadden will have a big game against this rushing Defense and he should keep the Texans honest enough that Jason Campbell will have time to make plays from out of the play-action pass.

Third, I feel Oakland have been underrated with the amounts of points they are getting against a team missing their best Offensive player.

Fourth, Houston are in a 'breather' alert as this game comes between Pittsburgh and then games with Baltimore and Tennessee and they may not be completely focused.

With the sad passing of Al Davis on Saturday morning, this should give the Raiders an emotional reason to play tougher now and they will want to put in a strong performance for the owner that helped shape the team into who they are today. 6 points looks a lot to be taking in a fairly evenly matched contest.