NFL Football
2011-10-09 - Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 5
Sunday 9 October 2011 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a rematch of the Divisional Round of the Play Offs last season when the Green Bay Packers (4-0) came into the Georgia Dome and ripped apart the Atlanta Falcons' (2-2) hopes and dreams with a devastating display of Offense.
While the Packers were impressive in their 27 point win last season in that Play Off game, it is arguable that they are playing even better right now. I 'tweeted' last week that I think the Offense and Aaron Rodgers are pretty much unstoppable right now and that the only way to beat this team will be in a high scoring shoot out.
Rodgers is averaging 319 yards per game through the air as the Offense has put up over 400 yards of total Offense in their games so far this season. How are they better than last season? The Packers now have a rushing game to go along with their passing attack and have averaged over 100 yards on the ground this year.
They also have Jermichael Finley back this season to add to the Offensive weapons of Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones.
Rodgers should get plenty of time against an Atlanta Defense that has not recorded a sack since Week 1, and one that was torched by Tavaris Jackson and the Seattle Seahawks last week. The Falcons are better against the run, but they will have to find a way to get pressure on Rodgers if they want to win this game.
While Rodgers will be expecting to have enough time to torch the Atlanta Secondary, the Falcons themselves will be hoping they can resolve issues on the Offensive Line that has seen Matt Ryan sacked 13 times already this season. Ryan does have Offensive weapons at his disposal, but will need protection from a Green Bay team that loves to blitz the QB and who are recording just under 3 sacks per game this season.
Michael Turner will try to help his QB, but he will not have an easy day in the office against the Packers who have been stout enough against the run. The Packers are allowing an average of 71 yards per game on the ground and are giving up just 3.7 yards per carry meaning there will be occasions where Ryan is in 3rd and long situations.
The Packers have looked susceptible to the pass this season, but they have begun to look a little tougher in wins over Chicago and Denver, although Matt Ryan is the best QB they have faced since Drew Brees in Week 1.
Head to Head
Everyone remembers the Green Bay blowout in the Play Off game between the two teams last season, but they had also met here in the regular season when the Falcons won by 3 points in a low scoring contest.
They have split the last 8 games in the series, but the Falcons are 6-2 against the spread in that time.
Atlanta are 1-2 at home against Green Bay, both straight up and against the spread.
The road team is 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
Atlanta are 1-3 against the spread this season, Green Bay are 3-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Atlanta are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home underdog.
However, they are 4-16-1 against the spread in their last 21 home games as the underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.
Matt Ryan is 16-6 against the spread at home.
Green Bay are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games.
They are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 30-15 against the spread on the road under Mike McCarthy.
Prediction
This is another line moving in the wrong direction for what I want, so I will back the Green Bay Packers now to cover the spread even though I missed the opening 4.5 point line. There are still some 5.5 point lines out there and I want to put my cash down now before it hits 6 everywhere and possibly moving higher still as Sunday approaches.
I like the Packers for the following reasons:
First, the Green Bay Offense looks unstoppable right now and will be able to put up big points with the lack of pressure Atlanta are getting on the QB.
Second, Atlanta were outplayed by the Philadelphia Eagles here when they were down by 10 points entering the final Quarter and it was only an injury to Michael Vick that allowed them to come back and win. If Green Bay get ahead, I think the Falcons are going to find it very hard to come back if Rodgers is in the game.
Third, Green Bay can rubber stamp their dominance of the NFC by knocking off last years Number 1 seed on the road.
Fourth, the Packers Defense is very much one that will pressure the QB and force turnovers and that should be enough for the Offense to seal the deal.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Atlanta Falcons 27-37 Green Bay Packers
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Green Bay Packers -5.5 Points @ 1.95
