NFL Football
2011-10-09 - San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 5
Sunday 9 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
These two AFC West rivals clash at Mile High with the San Diego Chargers (3-1) hoping to put another nail in the coffin of Kyle Orton's career here with the Denver Broncos (1-3). The Chargers have been known for their slow starts under Norv Turner but actually lead the Division by 1 game this year.
San Diego have to be one of the biggest underachievers in the NFL, always seemingly in the upper echelons in categories regarding Defense and Offense, yet they have flattered to deceive more often than not.
This season has been a struggle in the early stages for the team as they have averaged 22 points per game, settling for field goals and making big errors when in the final 30 yards of their opponents territories. Philip Rivers continues showing he is one of the elite QBs in the NFL but he does need a little more help from his supporting cast.
They should have a bit more success against a Denver team that is ranked in the bottom half in categories relating to pass Defense, rush Defense and also the number of sacks (7) they have managed on the season. The pass Defense has been particularly susceptible to big plays and was decimated by the Green Bay Packers last week.
You have to think that Ryan Mathews will continue his strong start to the season on the ground, but the absence of Antonio Gates continues to be felt in the Red Zone, while Vincent Jackson is a little banged up. To make matters tougher for San Diego, Champ Bailey should be back for the Broncos this week, although Brian Dawkins (S) is a doubt as he has not practiced this week.
This may be a home game for the Broncos, but it will not feel like that for Kyle Orton if he starts off struggling as the clamour for Tim Tebow will only get louder and louder. Orton has struggled without Josh McDaniels, even though he has almost 1000 yards through the air- the QB has recorded 8 TD passes and 6 Interceptions.
The key for Orton to keep the crowd off his back is to take advantage of a surprisingly weak San Diego pass Defense which is ranked at 21st in the NFL. He should be given plenty of time by an Offensive Line that has only allowed 5 sacks in 3 weeks and one that will be faced by a San Diego Defensive Line that is not getting a lot of pressure on the opposition QB.
Denver should also be able to run the ball against a San Diego team that has not really been tested in that area since Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings put up 159 yards on the ground in Week 1. The Chargers have restricted New England, Kansas City and Miami since then, but Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno are probably the toughest test in that time.
Head to Head
San Diego have an 8-2 record in the last 10 meetings in the series.
The Chargers are 7-2-1 against the spread in those games.
San Diego are 3-0-2 against the spread in their last 5 games in Denver.
Both teams are 1-3 against the spread this season.
Other Interesting Trends
Denver are 11-5-2 against the spread in the last 18 games as the home underdog.
However, they are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 8-21-2 against the spread in their last 31 games against AFC West rivals.
San Diego are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road favourite.
They are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last 6 road games as the favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Road favourites who come in off the normal rest period having won back to back home games as the favourites are 13-41 against the spread since 1995.
Prediction
I am going to put my bet down on this one early because I have a feeling the line may be shrinking again before Sunday. Initially, Denver were given 6 points, but that was quickly bet down to 4 points and has even drifted as low as 3.5 points in some places.
I actually like the Broncos to cover the spread in this game so will back them now for the following reasons:
First, San Diego look like they have been overrated, and there is no way Denver are 2.5 points worse off than Miami.
Second, the Chargers are putting up some big numbers, but they continue to make mistakes when trying to finish drives and are being forced to settle for field goals. The absence of Antonio Gates and limited Vincent Jackson will make it hard to rectify that this week.
Third, Denver have enough of a pass rush to take advantage of the San Diego Offensive Line that has struggled to keep Philip Rivers upright. That could force the team to settle for field goals rather than TDs.
Fourth, if Miami and Kansas City can keep the score respectable on the road against San Diego, Denver have enough of an Offense to do the same at home.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Denver Broncos 24-27 San Diego Chargers
