East Carolina at Houston Cougars Betting pick | 2011-10-08

NCAA Football

2011-10-08 - East Carolina at Houston Cougars

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

East Carolina Pirates @ Houston Cougars
United States: NCAA Football Week 6
Saturday 8 October 2011 - Kick Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)

Preview

This is a Conference USA match up that neither team can afford to lose if they have real ambitions of winning it and playing in a Bowl game. The Houston Cougars (5-0) are just about undefeated and have serious ambitions of running the table, while the East Carolina Pirates (1-3) have won their only Conference game this season.

Houston will be glad to come back home after back to back road wins were recorded in tough fashion. They had to fight back from a big deficit to win in Louisville and last Thursday were winning a shoot out against UTEP in a game where the Cougars were big favourites.

Case Keenum missed the majority of last season as Houston limped in with a 5-7 record, and the QBs return has been key to their improvement this season. He has already thrown for over 2000 yards in the first 5 games this season and has 14 TD passes with 2 Interceptions.

However, teams would be foolish to believe this Houston team is only capable of big things through the air, as the Cougars are averaging over 150 yards on the ground in each contest. Charles Sims had a big game out of the backfield last week and this balance keeps Defenses honest.

The biggest obstacle to Houston going unbeaten this season is clearly a porous Defense that was stomped by UTEP last week. They allowed 538 yards of total Offense in the 7 point win and gave up 42 points. The Cougars have given up an average of just under 200 yards per game on the ground this season, although the pass Defense has been less of a hindrance.

This could be the key this week as they face a East Carolina team that enjoys airing out the ball rather than getting it down and rushing it. The Pirates 291 yards per game through the air, but a really disappointing 85 yards on the ground.

Last week the Pirates Offense started off so slowly that they were down by 25 points to North Carolina, but they did pick things up as Dominique Davis became the first QB in the school's history to produce more than one 400 yard performance through the air. Davis also broke David Garrard's single game passing record last week, even though the Pirates still lost by 15.

The Defense has struggled to get to the QB this season and have recorded just 4 Sacks, although their pass Defense is only giving up 180 yards per game through the air. The problem for East Carolina is they give up over 200 yards per game on the ground and that kind of performance will only open the passing lanes for Houston's devastating Offense.

Colton Valencia (S) is questionable for Houston after suffering an injury last week against UTEP. He has recorded 29 tackles this season, the 4th most this year.

East Carolina's Offensive Line took another hit this week as they lost Doug Polochak (C) indefinitely when he was injured last week.

Head to Head

The schools have split the last 6 meetings in the series, although East Carolina are 4-2 against the spread in those games.

East Carolina beat Houston by 6 points at home last season.

The Pirates are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last 5 trips to play Houston.

Houston are 3-2 against the spread this season, East Carolina are 2-2.

Other Interesting Notes

Houston are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record on the road.

East Carolina are 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record at home.

They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.

Prediction

I like Houston to win and cover and I am going to take this while there is still a chance to get them under the key number 10.

I like the Cougars for the following reasons:

First, Houston are going to put up points as they have all season and East Carolina could find it much harder to keep up if their Offense continues to be inconsistent.

Second, Houston have enough balance in their Offense to think they will take big advantage of the Pirates inability to stop the run.

Third, Houston's Defense is much better against the pass than the run and that matches up well with East Carolina's strengths Offensively.

Fourth, East Carolina make more mistakes than Houston and that could mean the Cougars have shorter fields and can quickly pull away from the Pirates.