NCAA Football
2011-10-08 - Ohio State at Nebraska
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 6
Saturday 8 October 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a Big Ten clash between two teams who are desperate to get back on the horse after falling to disappointing defeats last week. Both the Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (3-2) know a defeat this week could already see them drawing a line through this season, particularly if the losers are the Buckeyes.
Nebraska were blown out by Wisconsin in a much anticipated clash last Saturday, and much of the problems came down to turning the ball over, with Tyler Martinez continuing to struggle under Center. Martinez is much more a running QB than a passing one and continues to find it hard to read the Defenses put in front of him, this leading to bad decisions and turnovers.
Martinez has thrown 4 TD passes and 5 Interceptions and also added 8 scores on the ground, and Bo Pelini has kept faith in his starting QB.
It is figured that the whole Nebraska team will have a tough time against an Ohio State team that has allowed an average of 93 yards on the ground in their opening 5 games of the season. However, they were torched for 240 yards rushing in their only road game this season when beaten handily by Miami 3 weeks ago.
The Buckeyes Defense comes into this contest having made life extremely difficult for Michigan State last week although in a 10-7 losing effort. They held the Spartans to 71 yards on the ground and now sit in 14th in the nation when it comes to scoring Defense.
This was supposed to be the week when Ohio State would be receiving some reinforcements as the suspensions of some of their key players were due to end. However, the program has decided to extend the punishment for Dan Herron, DeVier Posey and Marcos Hall for other violations they found out about and the Buckeyes remain without their best players.
The Offense has really struggled this season as shown by their scoring Offense ranked as low as 90th in the nation. Braxton Miller remains the starting QB for the team, even though he was benched in favour of Joe Bausarman last week. Miller has thrown 3 TD passes and 2 Interceptions this season, and he should expect to have some success against a surprisingly weak Nebraska Defense.
However, you have to expect the Cornhuskers Defensive Unit has something to prove after Wisconsin decimated them in all facets of the game last week.
Braylon Heard (RB) is questionable for Nebraska as he is suffering from a leg infection.
The hits keep coming for Ohio State who will be missing Verlon Reed (WR) for the rest of the season. Reed was ranked the Number 2 receiver on the team and will be missed considering the suspensions that are still affecting the team.
Head to Head
This will be the first meeting between the schools since the mid 1950s.
Nebraska are 1-4 against the spread this season, Ohio State are 2-3.
Other Interesting Notes
Nebraska are 1-10-1 against the spread in their last 12 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.
They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games following a loss.
Ohio State are 22-8-1 against the spread in their last 31 games on the road.
They are 20-7-1 against the spread in their last 28 games following a loss.
They are 21-4-1 against the spread in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
Both teams have come off emotional defeats but I am favouring Nebraska to bounce back with a win and cover for the following reasons:
First, I expect the Defense will play a big game after last weeks non-performance and will shut down the Ohio State Offense.
Second, the Cornhuskers should feel they can run all over the Buckeyes after the latter's performance in Miami when they gave up 240 yards on the ground.
Third, the home crowd should fire up the home team to leave everything on the field a week before the bye.
Fourth, I am finding it hard to see Ohio State scoring enough points to remain close to a team that is playing with a lot to prove.
I wish I had put my money down at the start of the week when the Cornhuskers opened as 9.5 point favourites, but I still think the Offensive problems for Ohio State will allow them to cover this bigger spread.
The Pick :
Nebraska Cornhuskers 31-13 Ohio State Buckeye
