NCAA Football
2011-10-08 - Colorado Buffaloes at Stanford Cardinal
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 6
Saturday 8 October 2011 - Kick Off 7:30pm ET
12:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a Pac-12 meeting between two teams with plenty of differences in terms of ambitions for the season as the Stanford Cardinal (4-0) look to maintain their unbeaten run against the Colorado Buffaloes (1-4).
Everyone knows what Andrew Luck can do under Center, but he showed another string to his bow in the win over UCLA last week when he caught his first TD pass. He improved his record to 11 TD passes and only 1 Interception this season, and has been particularly strong at home in Conference play.
The Cardinal are ranked at 17th in the nation in terms of total Offense and 7th in scoring Offense, while they are providing a balanced Offense thanks to the play of Stepfan Taylor who is averaging 100 yards per game on the ground.
Colorado will look for their Defense to get some penetration in the backfield and they are one of the top schools in terms of sacks per game, but the Stanford Offensive Line has really protected Andrew Luck well so far this season and you have to expect they will make it difficult for the Buffaloes.
On the flip side, Stanford also get plenty of pressure on the opposing QB and have averaged 3.5 sacks per game which does not bode well for the Buffaloes who have struggled to protect Tyler Hansen.
Hansen has played well for Colorado so far this season, throwing 11 TD passes and only 2 Interceptions, but his completion rate is not as good as the Buffaloes will need it to be if they want to beat a team as good as Stanford. The Cardinal will look to defend the pass first off as they are stout against the run and Colorado have really struggled with that aspect of their Offense.
Colorado have some serious question marks about their Secondary which is down to the final 3 players on the depth chart. Parker Orms is listed as questionable this week after struggling through last week, while Paul Vigo is almost certainly out.
Head to Head
This will be the first meeting between the schools since 1993.
Stanford have won the last two games in the series.
Stanford are 4-0 against the spread this season, Colorado are 2-3.
Other Interesting Notes
Stanford are 18-7-1 against the spread in their last 26 games as the home favourite.
They are 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 home games as the favourite of 10.5 points or more.
They are 6-0-1 against the spread in their last 7 games in Conference play.
Colorado are 8-20 against the spread in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record at home.
They are 7-23 against the spread in their last 30 games as the road underdog.
The Buffaloes have lost their last 5 games against the spread as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.
Prediction
I have been on Stanford for 3 of the first 4 weeks of the season and I am going to continue to ride the Andrew Luck wave even though the spread is on the large side.
I am taking Stanford for the following reasons:
First, Colorado are going to find it extremely difficult to stop Stanford moving the chains at will in this game.
Second, I expect the Buffaloes to get some joy through their passing joy, but I also expect all that airing out of the ball will lead to mistakes that will give the Cardinal short fields to work with.
Third, Andrew Luck has been very impressive at home in his career when playing against teams from within the Conference.
Fourth, Colorado's 20 point loss at Ohio State is the benchmark- Stanford are far stronger than the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball and really does not look good for Colorado.
I am disappointed I didn't get a chance to grab this line when it opened up at 27 points at the beginning of the week, but I still think the Cardinal can cover the 29 points, although I am taking this now with the feeling the spread is still going to increase come kick off.
There is a danger with a spread like this that we see a backdoor cover for the road team as they do have success throwing the ball, but I think the Cardinal have the big picture in mind and will put down a statement win.
The Pick :
Stanford Cardinal 52-20 Colorado Buffaloes
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Stanford Cardinal -29 Points @ 1.95
