NCAA Football
2011-10-08 - Florida at LSU
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, October 8th, 2011, 3:30PM US
(8:30PM GMT)
PREVIEW
The Florida Gators welcomed Alabama and thought they might make a match of it, but got drowned in their own swamp, losing 38-10 as the Tide choked the life out of their offence. Now they must travel to Baton Rouge, Louisiana to battle the #1 ranked LSU Tigers and, with their defence on the same level as Alabamas, I don't see how this spread makes sense.
Florida are 4-1 following that loss last week, but LSU are a perfect 5-0. The Tigers have beaten all their opponents by double digits and they've not been playing any chumps either. So far, LSU have beaten 3 ranked opponents! Kentucky was the last of the bunch, and they managed just 7 against this defence, giving up 35!
How are Florida going to score on this LSU defence? The Gators have a freshman for QB, with Jeff Driskel due to play after John Brantley injured his ankle. And even when Brantley was fit, it wasn't him that was moving this offence through the opposition. It was Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps, who were moving it on the ground. Rainey is the star of the team, no doubt. He has 415 rushing yards and 246 receiving yards on 14 catches, best on the team in both departments. And he has 4 TDs, a punt return for a TD. And a blocked kick. Demps gets the team almost 9 yards per carry, and has 4 TDs within his 325 yards of rushing offence. Keep these 2 quiet, and you've buggered the Gators.
And that is exactly what Alabama did, to everyones horror. Florida managed just 222 yards of total offence, with Rainey allowed 11 carries for just 4 yards. Demps was kept quiet too, seeing hardly anything of the ball. Starter knocked out, and then the 2 others shut out too. Total domination. And now they have to go on the road and play LSU? Please!
LSU have Jarrett Lee as QB and now have the enviable position of a bit of a selection headache, with Jordan Jefferson back from suspension. He rushed in a TD last week on his return and I can see both of them being given time on the pitch here.
Last season LSU just edged Florida 33-29. I can see it being a much more convincing scoreline this year as LSU looks to run the table in style.
BETTING VERDICT
Alabama's run defence restricted Florida to just 15 yards. LSU has a rush defence ranked 3rd so I don't see Florida doing a whole lot better against them.
The Pick :
LSU
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take LSU to win @ 1.22 (Pinnacle) - Banker for your parlays
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take LSU -13 @ 1.98 (Pinnacle)
