NCAA Football
2011-10-07 - Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldog
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 6
Friday 7 October 2011 - Kick Off 9pm ET
2am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Boise State Broncos (4-0) remain unbeaten, but their chances of making it to one of the big Bowl games will depend on them running the table and also hoping a couple of the other unbeaten teams fall away. The Broncos get the National spotlight all to themselves as they visit the Fresno State Bulldogs (2-3).
These two were also former rivals in the WAC, but this is a non-Conference game since Boise State moved to the Mountain West Conference.
Boise State beat Nevada last week in a revenge spot after the Wolf Pack beat the Broncos last season and ended their chances of playing in one of the better Bowl games. Kellen Moore will look to bounce back from his worst start of the season, even though the Broncos won the game 30-10.
Moore's poor performance was saved by Doug Martin, who rushed for 126 yards and 2 TDs, but I will be expecting the QB to come back with a much better game even though the Bulldogs have limited teams to just 209 yards per game through the air in their opening 5 weeks of the season.
The Broncos still have a couple of injury issues to resolve as Jake Broyles (OG), Thomas Byrd (C) and Dan Paul (FB) all remain questionable having missed the win over Nevada last week.
Fresno State have a losing record, but they have shown some heart in keeping games at Nebraska and California much closer than expected. Derek Carr has been solid at QB while throwing 10 TD passes and 4 Interceptions, while Robbie Rouse continues running the ball effectively as he recorded his 4th straight 100 yard rushing game of the season.
A big problem for the Bulldogs is the Offensive Line that has struggled to protect Carr this season. They have allowed an average of 2 Sacks per game and will not have things any easier against a Bronco Defense that records 1.8 Sacks per game.
Boise State's Defense has allowed an average of over 100 yards on the ground this season, but they have made it harder for teams to pass on them by holding opponents to under 53% completion rate. However, they will be missing Jerrell Gavins (CB) who led the team with 3 Interceptions this season.
Derron Smith (S) is the 2nd starting Safety that has been lost by the Bulldogs for the season and that could mean problems for them in the passing game this week with inexperience back ups in the line up. Matt Hunt (OL) and Richard Helepiko (C) are both listed on the injury report as questionable for this game, something that will give the Offensive Line further problems.
Head to Head
Boise State crushed Fresno State 51-0 at home last season meaning they have won 5 in a row against the Bulldogs in the series.
The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games played in Fresno.
The favourite is 10-1 against the spread in the last 11 games in the series.
Fresno State are 2-3 against the spread this season, Boise State are 2-2.
Other Interesting Notes
Fresno State are 16-34-3 against the spread in their last 53 games at home.
They are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home underdog.
They are 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games on a Friday night.
Boise State are 16-5 against the spread in their last 21 games as the road favourite.
They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.
They are 15-6 against the spread in their last 21 games on a Friday night.
Prediction
I have to say I like Boise State to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Boise State have a very strong record against Fresno State in recent history, both straight up and against the spread.
Second, the Broncos want to keep impressing and have enjoyed it in recent history when the National spotlight is on them in spots where their game is the sole one of the day.
Third, Kellen Moore will want to underline his Heisman candidacy by putting in a big performance to erase the memory of his performance against Nevada last week.
The Pick :
Fresno State Bulldogs 21-45 Boise State Bronc
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Boise State Broncos - 20.5 Points @ 1.95
