NFL Football
2011-10-02 - Washington Redskins at St Louis Rams
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 2 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Normally if you start the season 0-3, this should represent a big game for a team with Play Off ambitions, but the St Louis Rams know things can easily be turned around in the awful NFC West. They entertain the Washington Redskins (2-1) hoping to come out much better than they did against Baltimore last week.
The Rams are probably one of the underrated teams in the League thanks to their record, but you could have made a real case for the team to have been 2-0 after games against Philadelphia and the New York Giants, but bad receiving play and hapless mistakes meant they were beaten in both and they did have a bad reaction last week when mauled by Baltimore, a team who had something to prove.
Sam Bradford is clearly a franchise QB, but his receiving corps is poor at best and that is clearly affecting them when they try to move the chains with consistency. Bradford will seriously be hoping his receivers do not smear their hands in butter before this game.
The Offensive Line has also failed to protect Bradford and are sure to have a tough task on their hands against a Washington Defense that is much improved and can get plenty of pressure on the QB. Bradford has been sacked 11 times this season.
A lot of the workload will be put on Steven Jackson's shoulders as the running back looks to be reaching optimal health. The Redskins have struggled to stop the run this season, and that could give Bradford some leeway if he is working in 3rd and manageable situations.
The Redskins will hope to get over a disappointing defeat on Monday Night Football in front of the nation as they were beaten by the Dallas Cowboys thanks to 6 Field Goals.
The Offense was stagnant at best as Rex Grossman struggled to move the chains. It will be interesting how he deals with a Rams pass rush that has already record 8 sacks this season, and one that will be coming after him. The real thing with Grossman is you just don't know whether 'Good Rex' or 'Bad Rex' is coming out to play.
However, Washington will expect to be able to move the ball against a Defense that has allowed 440.7 yards of total Offense a game, the worst mark in the NFC, although they have also played some explosive Offenses this season.
Tim Hightower has a good career mark against the Rams from his time with the Arizona Cardinals, and he will be given the bulk of the carries even though he struggled against the Cowboys last week.
Head to Head
These two teams have met in each of the last 3 seasons, and it is the Rams who lead 2-1 including a blowout here last season.
St Louis have won the last 4 games against the spread in the series.
The underdog is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games in the series.
The road team is 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games of the series.
St Louis are 0-3 against the spread this season, Washington are 2-1.
Other Interesting Notes
St Louis are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home underdog being given between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are 9-20 against the spread in their last 29 games against teams with winning records.
Teams losing by 25 points are 80-44 against the spread in the following week as long as they are not underdogs of 7 points or more.
A team that lost by 28 points or more have followed with a 56-32 record against the spread in the next game if they are considered the underdog.
Washington are 1-8-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as the favourite.
They are 2-5-2 against the spread in their last 9 games as the road underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.
They are 6-19-3 against the spread in their last 28 games against teams with losing records.
Washington are 10-6 against the spread in their last 16 games played after playing the Dallas Cowboys.
77% of the wagers made in Vegas have been made on the Redskins.
Prediction
I have been waiting all week for the point spread to hit the key number of 3, which it has at Bet365, so I can take the St Louis Rams for the following reasons:
First, I think the two teams have been overrated and underrated respectively due to early season form when neither is as good/bad as they may have looked.
Second, Washington are playing back to back road games on a short week which is always tough.
Third, Washington have come off a tough emotional loss and may not be fully focused on playing a team they should beat.
Fourth, the Redskins have struggled as the favourite in recent games and have not coped well with expectations on their shoulders.
Fifth, teams who have been blown out the week before have shown some real tendencies to bounce back as the trends indicate above.
I feel pretty happy taking the Rams to keep this close as I don't think they are as bad as their record suggests and they could take advantage of the Redskins here. I just hope the St Louis receivers cut out their drops which would have led to wins already this season.
The Pick :
St Louis Rams 20-17 Washington Redskins
