NFL Football
2011-10-03 - Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Monday 3 October 2011 - Kick Off 7:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Indianapolis Colts (0-3) have missed Peyton Manning so much more than anyone has expected, yet the schedule makers were unaware of this when they decided the Colts will be the prime time game for the 2nd week in a row. They face the young and ambitious Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) who are real challengers in the loaded NFC South.
The Colts threw everything they could at the Pittsburgh Steelers last week and while the Defense was as impressive as they have been this season, the Offense once again flattered to deceive as Kerry Collins struggles in the system.
Collins is out this week with a concussion suffered in that game with Pittsburgh, so Curtis Painter will be given his first start. Painter has been in the system for a couple of seasons now so he should be able to have a better reading of his receiver routes, but his accuracy is a concern.
This is a tough test for Indianapolis against a Tampa Bay Defense that musters plenty of pass rush and one that is also very stout against the run. They limited Michael Turner to 18 yards last week in their win over Atlanta, so it is difficult to see how the Colts are going to effectively keep moving the chains.
Indianapolis' Defense is also suffering with plenty of injuries and it will be interesting to see if they can muster the same performance they did against the Steelers last week. The Colts really put a stout performance in to stop the run, but Tampa Bay are expected to cause more problems on this front.
LeGarrette Blount will be utilised early and often and he is a much different back to Rashad Mendenhall and he will punch through any holes the Colts leave open. Blount is averaging 4 yards a carry this season and he should be able to give the Buccaneers short yardage opportunities, if not breaking big runs off as Peyton Hillis and Ben Tate managed in the first 2 weeks of the season.
The Colts Defense is most effective when they let Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis loose when the game is close, but they are almost rendered useless if they Colts have a big lead to overcome. Their small and speedy nature means they are susceptible to being taken over by power running teams, teams just like the Buccaneers.
Head to Head
These teams last met in 2007 with the Colts winning at a canter.
The Colts are now 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.
Tampa Bay are 2-1 against the spread this season, Indianapolis are 1-2.
Other Interesting Notes
Tampa Bay are 5-16 against the spread in the last 21 games played at home. They are 8-15 against the spread in their last 23 games played after winning consecutive games.
They are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 games they have played following a straight up win.
Indianapolis are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog.
They are 13-3-2 against the spread in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record. They are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
55% of the wagers made in Vegas have been made on the Indianapolis Colts.
Prediction
I know the spread is large, but I do like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win and cover for the following reasons:
First, Indianapolis put in their all against the Steelers last week and still could not win. That has got to hurt emotionally for a Defense that played their hearts out.
Second, Curtis Painter is making his first start and I struggle to see how the Colts will be able to consistently move the chains.
Third, on the other hand, I expect Tampa Bay to be able to move the chains much better than their opponents.
As I said, it is a big spread, but I think it is possible that it will get bigger so I want to take this key number of 10. Indianapolis were blown out by Houston in Week 1 and I think they will make a couple of key turnovers that allow the Bucs to cover.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-13 Indianapolis Colts
