NFL Football
2011-10-02 - Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 2 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The San Diego Chargers (2-1) are not surprising anyone with the poor performances in the early part of the season, although they at least have a winning record through 3 weeks of the season. They face the Miami Dolphins (0-3), a team whose Head Coach is in serious trouble and could even be removed if they lose again here.
The Chargers may be 2-1, but they have missed so many opportunities while playing some really lacklustre football in the first 3 weeks, and once again the airwaves are filled with talk about this team underachieving. San Diego cannot afford a slow start with teams like Oakland in the Division, yet they cannot seem to get out of this funk.
Philip Rivers is able to move the chains at will, but mistakes have prevented the drives finishing in the correct manner. This was in evidence in the 14 point loss at New England in Week 2, and they were at it again last week when allowing the Kansas City Chiefs to stay close.
Antonio Gates will be missing again this week by the looks of things and he is still a big part of this Offense. Ryan Mathews should get the bulk of carries for the team after an impressive performance against the Chiefs last week.
The Chargers should be able to move the ball against the Dolphins Defense which is ranked 28th against the pass. This is a far cry from preseason expectations on South Beach when they thought they had one of the strongest Secondary tandems in the League in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. Miami's problem is they are not getting enough pressure on the opposition QB and that is allowing them to be carved up.
Cameron Wake has really fallen off last seasons breakout performances when he nailed 14 sacks, and there are not many other players that can penetrate the backfield.
Miami's Offense has been struggling as Chad Henne continues to prove he is not the QB of the future for a franchise that has been searching for Dan Marino's replacement for a decade. They have moved away from the power running team they were last season, and Reggie Bush has disappointed which is no real surprise considering his performances in New Orleans.
Henne should be able to take advantage of a San Diego Defense that has really struggled against the pass. Daniel Thomas should get his yardage on the ground as the Chargers are 18th in the NFL against the run, and that should give Henne chances to move the chains in short and manageable situations.
Head to Head
San Diego beat Miami by 10 points in their last meeting played here in 2009.
The Dolphins had won 7 games in the series straight up before that loss, 5 of those in a row coming against the spread.
Miami are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games of the series.
San Diego are 0-3 against the spread this season, Miami are 0-2-1.
Other Interesting Notes
San Diego are 2-6-2 against the spread in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record. They are 23-7 against the spread in their last 30 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Miami are 20-6 against the spread in their last 26 games against a team with a winning record at home. They are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games as the road underdog.
Miami are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games when losing the first of back to back road games.
53% of the wagers made in Vegas have been on San Diego.
Prediction
I am actually going to take the underdog here for minimum stakes to at least stay within the spread for the following reasons:
First, San Diego continuously shoot themselves in the foot and allow teams to stay close in games, especially early in the season.
Second, Miami play much better on the road than at home and will get a chance to move the chains against this Chargers Defense.
Third, San Diego are in a 'breather' spot as this is the middle game between two Divisional games.
I am keeping this to the minimum stakes because I was hoping the spread would move above a TD in favour of Miami but it has stuck on the key line of 7 and is perhaps even moving down.
The Dolphins are also playing back to back road games, but they have done well in this position in the past, especially when coming in off a loss, but I don't fully trust them so the minimum stake comes in.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
San Diego Chargers 24-20 Miami Dolphins
