NFL Football
2011-10-02 - Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 2 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Green Bay Packers (3-0) are playing like they have a repeat on their minds after winning the SuperBowl last season and being one of three teams that have yet to taste this year. They return home for the first time since Week 1 as they host the AFC's Denver Broncos (1-2).
There is not a lot I can say about Aaron Rodgers, a player that is clearly amongst the elite in QB terms, and the rest of the Green Bay Offense that has so many weapons that they are almost impossible to stop. Whether it is Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson or James Jones, there are so many in the receiving corps for Rodgers to look to yet I feel they have improved on the SuperBowl team without signing new players.
Jermichael Finley came back from injury this season and the Tight End has shown his worth by grabbing 3 TDs last week in the win at Chicago. The Packers have also found a little bit of balance in their Offense as they have finally found a rushing attack that was missing during the regular season last year.
Ryan Grant will be missing this week, but James Starks has been a revelation since the Play Offs so I don't expect the Offense to miss a beat.
There looks to be too many weapons for the Denver Defense to deal with, especially if Champ Bailey and Elvis Dumervil are both missing. Both players are listed as questionable on the injury report, but Dumervil is expected to start while Bailey is less certain. Dumervil will at least give the Broncos a little bit more of a pass rush, but Rodgers is playing too well at the moment and the Packers should get their points.
Kyle Orton had looked like a real NFL QB under the tutelage of Josh McDaniels, but has struggled since the former Head Coach was fired and the fans are getting more and more vocal for Tim Tebow to be brought in. Orton struggled last week in Tennessee and plays a Packer Defense that has come off their best performance of the season so far.
The problem for Orton will be the fact that Denver are unlikely to get too much going on the ground. Knowshon Moreno is likely to return to the side this week, but the Pack Defense is allowing just 2.5 yards per carry and they will force the QB to throw to keep up with them.
Head to Head
These two teams last met in 2007 with the Packers winning the game at Mile High thanks to a TD in OT.
Their last meeting at Lambeau Field came in 2003 when the Packers blew the Broncos out of the water.
Green Bay are 4-2 against the spread in the last 6 meetings between the teams. Green Bay are 2-1 against the spread this season, Denver are 1-2.
Other Interesting Notes
Green Bay are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games at home.
However, they are just 4-12-2 against the spread in their last 18 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.
The Packers are 12-4-1 against the spread in their last 17 games against a team with a losing record.
Denver are 5-13 against the spread in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record at home. They are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the underdog.
The Broncos are 9-17 against the spread in their last 26 games against teams from the NFC.
80% of the wagers placed in Vegas have been on Green Bay.
Prediction
I am going to be a square and take the Packers to win this game and cover the spread for the minimum stakes for the following reasons:
First, Green Bay have far too many weapons and are guaranteed to put points on the board and I don't think Denver can keep up in their current guise.
Second, Denver are playing the 2nd of back to back road games and that is tough on the best teams.
Third, Green Bay have put the lesser teams in the NFL to the sword in recent games.
There are some concerns for the Packers in this game as it is a 'breather' between Chicago and Atlanta and they may not be fully focused on the Broncos. However, I am struggling to see how Denver keep up with the scoring power of the Packers but I am keeping stakes to a minimum as the spread is easily large enough to be covered by the back door.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Green Bay Packers 31-17 Denver Broncos
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Green Bay Packers -12 Points @ 1.92
