NFL Football
2011-10-02 - San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 2 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is another game this week where it looks like the teams records have perhaps been put the wrong way. The San Francisco 49ers (2-1) play their 2nd consecutive game on the East Coast against the Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) who have looked far from 'dreamy' in the first 3 weeks of the season.
Michael Vick has been knocked out of the last 2 games for the Eagles, with both ending as losses, and it has led to him making open his complaints that he feels he is not being protected as much from the referees as other QBs... Personally I think he should look at that Offensive Line that is not blocking well and also at his Head Coach who is a big fan of slow developing plays.
The Eagles look to avoid losing their 3rd consecutive game and avoid falling behind further in the NFC East race, and they will have Michael Vick on the field after it was discovered his right hand was bruised, not broken as first reported.
You have to expect the 49ers will get pressure on Vick with their front 4 being able to dominate this poor Offensive Line the Eagles have, but they may have bigger problems in the Secondary as Philadelphia have too many weapons for them to cover. LeSean McCoy may struggle to get much on the ground though as the 49ers have been stout in that area all season.
I expect Vick will be able to make enough big plays to put up some points against the 49ers so the question now is how will San Francisco respond? They have struggled to move the chains with the Offense ranked at 32nd in total yards, while Frank Gore is not 100% healthy and not hitting the holes as he should.
That means Alex Smith will need a big performance through the air against the much vaunted Secondary. The weakness of the Eagles Defense is in the middle, so Vernon Davis should get plenty of looks, but whether he gets to see the ball is another thing as the Eagles will definitely get pressure on the QB.
San Francisco have allowed 11 sacks already this season and were decimated up front by the Dallas Cowboys, so you have to imagine Justin Babin and Cullen Jenkins will get the chance to have a big day.
David Akers will return to Lincoln Financial Field with the opposition for the first time.
Head to Head
Philadelphia have won the last 5 meetings in the series between these two teams, including a 3 point win at Candlestick Park last season.
The Eagles are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series and they are 2-0 in that time at home.
The favourite is 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.
Philadelphia are 1-2 against the spread this season, San Francisco are 2-0-1.
Other Interesting Notes
Philadelphia have lost their last 4 games against the spread as the home favourite.
They are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
They are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games following a double digit loss at home.
The Eagles are 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 home games when they are favoured by 6 points or more and they have lost back to back games coming in.
San Francisco are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games following a win.
They are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Only 52% of the wagers made in Vegas have been on the Eagles.
Prediction
I am going to be backing the Philadelphia Eagles to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, San Francisco are playing their 2nd game on the East Coast and it is tough enough playing back to back road games. They stayed in the East this week, but it is still a tough ask for a team.
Second, Philadelphia have got an explosive Offense that is capable of putting up big points against anyone and you have to think they will even against a tough 49ers Defense leaving the pressure on Alex Smith.
Third, Smith is going to be in passing situations and the Eagles Defense will be all over him if the Offensive Line plays as they have through the first 3 weeks of the season and that could lead to mistakes and turnovers.
I am not going to go overboard with this pick as Michael Vick is struggling to stay in games at the moment and the 49ers will be putting pressure on him.
However, the 49ers should be bigger underdogs for this game than the spread suggests because of their Offense which is not getting the job done so far, and I was expecting them to be double digit dogs so I feel the spread is in our favour.
The spread is down to 8.5 points in some places, and I don't forsee it going to far below that now so I will put down my cash.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Philadelphia Eagles 27-13 San Francisco 49ers
