NFL Football
2011-10-02 - Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 2 October 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Two teams that had contrasting expectations to open the season will meet each other with identical records through the first 3 weeks of the season. The Atlanta Falcons (1-2) come to CenturyLink Field eager to not fall too far behind in the race for the NFC South against the Seattle Seahawks (1-2).
The Falcons were beaten by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week in a Divisional game and now have to travel again, this time to the West Coast. It is hard to think that this team won the NFC in the regular season last year, but they could easily have opened the season 0-3 this time around if it wasn't for a Michael Vick injury in Week 2.
The Offensive Line has been a shadow of last season, allowing Matt Ryan to be sacked at least 4 times in each game and 13 times in total through 3 weeks. This is a sharp contrast to last season when he was sacked just 23 times throughout the regular season.
Ryan should be given a little more time to throw from the backfield this week as he faces a Seattle team that is struggling to get pressure on the opposition QB. With tools like Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez around him, I expect Ryan should have a big game here.
Atlanta will look to their stout Defense against the run to build their winning foundation upon. They are allowing just 3.6 yards per carry, and if they can perform to those levels, they are going to force Tavaris Jackson into throwing the ball to keep the chains moving.
Jackson has really struggled this season at his new team, and he just does not look like a QB. He has been sacked 14 times this season, the most in the NFL, and he has already been booed in his first appearance at home, even though the end result was a Seattle win.
He does have the benefit of playing with Sidney Rice, his former teammate from Minnesota, and they hooked up for 109 yards last week in the win over the Cardinals, and they should be able to get some things done against this Falcons Secondary.
However, if the Atlanta Defense can force Jackson into passing situations, you have to think they will be able to get after the QB with John Abraham and Ray Edwards.
Head to Head
Atlanta have won the last 2 meetings between the teams, including a 34-18 win here last season.
They had previously lost their last 2 visits to Seattle.
Atlanta are 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 games in the series.
Both teams are 1-2 against the spread this season.
Other Interesting Notes
Seattle are 5-18 against the spread in their last 23 games following a straight up win.
They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home underdog.
They are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.
Atlanta are 17-4 against the spread in their last 21 games following a straight up loss.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road favourite.
They have won their last 4 games against the spread as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Mike Smith is 3-0 against the spread when playing on the West Coast.
91% of the wagers made in Vegas have been on the road team.
Prediction
The spread looks like it is wrong so I am going to back the Atlanta Falcons to win and cover for the following reasons:
First, Seattle's Defense does not have the pass rushers that are going to force Matt Ryan into quick decisions so I cannot see the Seahawks stopping Atlanta moving the chains and scoring points.
Second, it will be hard for the Seahawk's to keep up with Ryan if the Falcons force Tavaris Jackson to make plays with his arm.
Third, the spread should be a lot higher than it is considering the Cardinals were 3.5 point favourites last week.
Fourth, the Falcons have really become accustomed to bouncing back from defeats so I expect them to recover from a disappointing defeat at Tampa Bay last week.
The concerns with the pick is the fact the Falcons have to play on the West Coast, but they have done well under Mike Smith in this situation before including a win here in Seattle last season.
I just struggle to see this Seattle team keeping this close so the Falcons have to be the pick.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Seattle Seahawks 9-27 Atlanta Falcons
