English Premier
2011-10-02 - Bolton vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Sunday 2nd October - Kickoff 1:30pm
Bolton
Coyle's Bolton find themselves rooted to the bottom of the table with a lowly 3 points from a possible 18. The side is lacking confidence and really needs to start picking up points, the good news is that Bolton is at home this weekend. The bad news is that 3rd placed Chelsea are the visitors and they have won on the last 6 visits to the Reekbok.
The season started so well for Bolton, a demolition at QPR (4-0) quickly put to the bed the pre season jitters that this side would struggle this season. Bolton's FA Cup run ruined their good start last year and their form in the latter months was alarmingly poor.
As quickly as pundits wrote off the chance of a struggle this season after the QPR game, 5 games on and 5 defeats has been Bolton shorten into 3/1 for relegation. I don't think they will go down but if they keep playing like this that 3/1 may look massive come the end of the season.
The Reebok has seen Man City (L 2-3), Man United (L 5-0) and Norwich (L 2-1) all come and take the points in very dominating performances. City and United battered Bolton but Wanderers did show some fight in the former game and got themselves 2 goals. The Norwich game should have been a game that Bolton got back to winning ways but the Canaries were also too strong for Coyle's side. The losses to the Manchester clubs were acceptable but to then lose to a promoted side at home is really poor.
The good news for Bolton is that they have scored in 2 of the 3 home games and only United could shut them out. Chelsea hasn't kept a clean sheet since opening day of the season so a Bolton goal is a real possibility this Sunday.
Team news is that Alonso, S Davies, Lee, Mears, Ricketts, Kakuta, Holden, Klasnic and Wheater miss this one with keeper Jaaskelainen a doubt. That is a lot of players out for such a small squad and Bolton may really struggle against a solid Chelsea. Cahill should return to the boost the back 4 whilst the midfield has been rocked following Holden's additional 6 month injury lay off. Coyle will still give it a go and N'Gog will partner Davies in a 2 man attack up top as part of an attacking 4-4-2 lineup.
Predicted Bolton Lineup:
Jaaskelainen, Steinsson, Cahill, Knight, Robinson; Reo-Coker, Muamba, Petrov, Eagles; Ngog, K Davies.
Chelsea
Andre Villas-Boas's Chelsea occupy 3rd place in the league and trail joint leaders United/City by 3 points. The situation isn't ideal, as the Blues are already playing catchup but with the side starting to gel under the new manager I think the future looks good for Chelsea.
The Blues have needed to time to change the way they play. Villas-Boas wanted to install a fast tempo and high line at the back, two tactical plays that Chelsea is unfamiliar with. At times they have looked a little suspect but the progression is taking it's shape nicely with results being achieved at the same time.
Since drawing at Stoke on opening day 0-0, Chelsea has won at Sunderland (2-1) but lost at Old Trafford to United (3-1). In the midweek Champions League game at Valencia, Chelsea really gave Los Che a good going over for over an hour in a 1-1 draw. The performance really impressed me as Chelsea created lots of chances but poor finishing and a slack bit of defending from Kalou cost them dearly.
In fact slack defending has cost them dearly all season, despite only playing 6 games the Chelsea back four for me has lost it's water tight image. Normally I feel very confident that the Blues can shut most teams out but so far this season, West Brom, Norwich, United, Sunderland and Swansea have scored against Chelsea.
The high back line is one problem with the slow centrebacks having to sprint back when playing players on and just not recovering in time. The other is set pieces, every game teams are causing Chelsea problems and Swansea alone in the last league game could have scored 3 from corners/free kicks. Against United Smalling scored from a set piece and the penalty was given away against Valencia, yes you've guessed it from a set piece.
Team news is that Essien, Hilario and Torres miss out but Sturridge and Drogba are back for the Blues. With Luiz getting the nod over Ivanovic midweek, I expect the Serb to regain his place for this one. In midfield Lampard's goal puts him back in contention but I still fancy Meireles to start following his bright displays this season. Up top without Torres, Drogba will start in the middle with Mata one side and I expect Anelka the other. Sturridge may play ahead of Anelka but I know the manager likes Anelka and for me just gets the nod.
Predicted Chelsea Lineup:
Cech, Bosingwa, Ivanovic, Terry, Cole; Ramires, Meireles, Mikel; Mata, Anelka, Sturridge.
The Betting Verdict
Bolton has lost the last 6 times to Chelsea at home at and aggregate score of 14-0! With them bottom of the table and on a losing run of 4 games I can't see that record improving this Sunday.
I do however think they will score, Chelsea are so slack at the back these days it's incredibly frustrating. I feel once they get one clean sheet perhaps others will follow and this looks a good game to start.
Yet with Bolton scoring in 2 of their 3 home games this year and no Chelsea clean sheets since the opening day I see both teams scoring.
I would have liked a better price for this bet but I'm guessing its been backed in throughout the week. Bolton will attack all game and with Davies a real threat in the air, on set pieces Bolton has a real chance to test Cech in goal.
The Blues are creating lots of chances lately so I can't see them struggling with the goalscoring. I'd personally love a Chelsea win to nil but I can't back it. Both to score in an open away win for Chelsea is the verdict.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bolton 1-3 Chelsea
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Both Teams to Score : YES at 1.85 @ Ladbrokes
