NFL Football
2011-10-02 - Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 2 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Two teams that have serious ambitions of playing in the AFC Play Offs this season will meet at Reliant Stadium when the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) come into town to face the Houston Texans (2-1).
Houston wanted to prove they are for real in the AFC this season and not just taking advantage of a hobbled Indianapolis team when they went into the SuperDome to play the New Orleans Saints last week. For 3 Quarters it looked like the Texans were going to show the NFL what they are about, but a 4th Quarter meltdown saw them come away with the loss and questions once again being asked if they can win the big games.
The Texans will be hoping Arian Foster is back in the starting line up so the leading rusher from last season can take a shot against a surprisingly poor rush Defense for the Steelers this season. Pittsburgh are usually built to stop the run, holding teams to 85 rushing yards per game since 2001, but they have allowed almost 100 yards a game this season.
If Foster is still hobbled, Ben Tate will continue working out of the backfield and try to add to his 300 yards gained so far this season.
Houston will always be capable of putting up points thanks to their Matt Schaub-Andre Johnson combination, while Owen Daniels is playing a bigger part in the Offense, but their loss to the Saints last week again raised questions about their temperament considering it was the 5th game they have blown since the beginning of last season when they have led going into the 4th Quarter.
Pittsburgh escaped with a win from Indianapolis last week, but they seem to have changed their identity so much on the Offense that they are no longer a rush first team, but a pass first. The problem for the Offense has been their line which is not protecting Ben Roethlisberger as much as they should nor opening the running lanes for Rashad Mendenhall.
There are some serious playmakers on the Offensive side of the ball, with Mike Wallace seemingly still improving and Antonio Brown providing a genuine 2nd option for the team.
The Defense needs to find their identity too, with the Steelers giving up far too many yards on the ground and thus making their pass rush almost non-existent as teams are not facing the 3rd and longs the Steelers usually leave them in. Some have already questioned the age of the Defense and whether they have lost a step, so they definitely have something to prove.
Head to Head
Pittsburgh blew out Houston at home when they last met in 2008. The Steelers also won on their only previous visit to Houston and they are 2-0 against the spread in the last 2 games of the series.
Houston are 2-1 against the spread this season, Pittsburgh are just 1-2.
Other Interesting Notes
Houston are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
Pittsburgh are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road underdog.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.
Ben Roethlisberger is 11-6 against the spread in the 17 games he has started as the road underdog.
Prediction
This is another game I am locking in early because the spread is only going to get shorter and shorter so it is best to take the points offered on Pittsburgh now for the following reasons:
First, Ben Roethlisberger is one of the elite QBs in the NFL, and these players tend to do very well as the underdog.
Second, Houston's Defense is not as good as some thought after the first 2 weeks of the season and the Pittsburgh Offense should get some joy on that front.
Third, Pittsburgh should have beaten Indianapolis much easier than they did with mistakes and turnovers keeping the game close- I expect Pittsburgh to be much more focused this week against a tougher team on the road.
Fourth, Houston did lose in heartbreaking fashion last week at New Orleans and there may be a few doubts lingering about their ability to close games, especially if they are still fairly close going into the final Quarter.
The line has already dropped from 4 points to 3.5 in many places and I expect the rest of the layers to start doing the same too. There are only a couple of places that still have the 4 points available to take and there is no chance this spread will move out to 4.5 points so I don't see any reason to wait anymore and letting the spread shrink further.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Houston Texans 27-24 Pittsburgh Steelers
