NFL Football
2011-10-02 - New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 2 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
I have the New Orleans Saints (2-1) in my top 5 teams in the NFL right now considering they were not that far away from beating Green Bay in Week 1 and still being an unbeaten team, and they should have a bit of confidence coming into Jacksonville to play the Jaguars (1-2), a team that is still unsure if they are looking to the future or playing for now.
There is not a lot I can tell you about Drew Brees and this Offense that you won't already know already. Suffice to say the Offense may be even stronger this week now that Marques Colston is expected back and they will be looking to build on their opening 3 Weeks of the season when they have averaged 34.7 points per game.
The Saints come into the game after overcoming a big deficit to the hot Houston Texans, yet Drew Brees continued carving up opposite Defenses while overcoming that 9 point deficit that led to a 40-33 win for New Orleans.
There are plenty of options for Brees when he snaps the ball, with a receiving corps full of talented playmakers. Jimmy Graham (TE) has really got himself involved in the Offense this season, while Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are all capable of having big days on any given Sunday.
A bigger problem for New Orleans could be some of the injuries to the Offensive Line which will see some younger players coming in to replace veterans like Olin Kreutz and Zach Strief. However, Brees is very good at analysing Defenses in front of him and is also capable of getting the ball out of his hands quickly so I think the Saints will still move the chains.
The Jaguars Defense will point to the fact they have kept teams to under 200 yards passing per game this season, but Matt Hasselbeck, Mark Sanchez nor Cam Newton are as good as Drew Brees and do not have the receiving corps that Brees has at his disposal.
With the Saints capable of putting up points, Jacksonville will rely on their rookie QB Blaine Gabbert to help carry some of the load of the Offense along with RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Gabbert came into the team as a starter as David Garrard was cut before the season started and Luke McCown reminded everyone why he was not a starting QB in the NFL by throwing 4 picks early against the Jets.
Jones-Drew is averaging over 100 yards per game on the ground and you have to imagine he will be successful running the ball against the Saints, although his influence could decrease as the game goes on if the Jaguars fall too far behind.
A huge problem for Jacksonville could be the fact they have scored just 29 points in 3 games this season, with only the Kansas City Chiefs scoring less points, and that is no way to be playing when going up against one of the most powerful Offenses in the League.
Head to Head
This is their first meeting since 2007 when New Orleans blew out the Jaguars in the SuperDome.
Jacksonville won the last time they played in Florida, but that game came back in 2003.
Jacksonville are 1-2 against the spread this season, New Orleans are 2-1.
Other Interesting Notes
Jacksonville are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 home games.
They are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog given between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record.
The Jaguars are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 home games after playing their previous 2 games on the road.
However, they are 10-22 against the spread in their last 32 games against non-Divisional opponents.
New Orleans are just 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record.
Drew Brees is 24-17 against the spread in games played following back to back wins.
Prediction
The spread is going out again so I am going to lock in New Orleans to win and cover for the following reasons:
First, their Offense is going to put up a bunch of points on the Jaguars and I do not see Blaine Gabbert being capable of keeping up once Greg Williams sends in his Defense to smother him.
Second, if the Saints get in front as I expect, they will take away the Jaguars main offensive weapon Maurice Jones-Drew as they begin to throw to catch up.
Third, Jacksonville are just not scoring enough points to keep this close.
Fourth, the Jaguars are not getting enough pressure on the QB so far so they wont take advantage of a weakened Offensive Line for the Saints and will also give Drew Brees far too much time to carve them up.
With the way the Saints are playing, they look more than capable of reaching 30 points again this week, and that means Blaine Gabbert will need to help the Jaguars to 24 points and that has not looked like happening for Jacksonville all season.
There are only a couple of 6.5 point spreads left with many already moving their lines to 7 points and I can only imagine this will go up above a TD by Sunday so I am taking the Saints now.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Jacksonville Jaguars 17-30 New Orleans Saints
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll take the New Orleans Saints -6.5 Points @ 1.92
