English Premier
2011-10-01 - Aston Villa vs Wigan
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 1 October 2011 - Kickoff 3pm
Aston Villa
After a really positive start to his new career as manager of Aston Villa, Alex McLeish must have wondered what all the fuss was about after his move across town from Birmingham City. However, the murmurings of discontent are beginning to get louder as Villa struggle to put wins together.
Aston Villa are 8th in the Premier League table and are unbeaten through their first 6 games of the League season, but they have only picked up 8 points considering. They are 1-2-0 at Villa Park, scoring 4 goals and conceding 2.
The Villians have failed to win any of their last 5 games in all competitions, losing 1 of those against Bolton in the Carling Cup at home when they did play a strong team. Villa have drawn 4 consecutive games in the Premier League since beating Blackburn Rovers, but goals have remained a problem for the team, particularly at home. They have scored more than 1 goal in only 2 of their last 10 home games in all competitions, and 1 of those was against Hereford in the Carling Cup.
There are a few players in the treatment room at Villa Park, but the likes of Darren Bent, Emile Heskey and Jermaine Jenas could make their returns to the side. James Collins and Carlos Cuellar are less certain to be passed fit. Charles N'Zogbia could start against his former club.
Wigan
Roberto Martinez showed his loyalty in the Summer by committing his future to Dave Whelan and Wigan when other clubs, particularly Aston Villa, were hoping for the Spaniard to take over at their clubs. Unfortunately, Martinez is still in for a tough time if he wishes to maintain the Latics place in the top flight.
Wigan are 15th in the table and have 5 points from their opening 5 games of the season, although it is telling that their points have all come against the 3 promoted teams. They are 0-1-2 away from home so far this season, scoring 1 goal but conceding 6, although losses at Manchester City and Everton can be forgiven.
The team have been in poor form of late, losing 4 consecutive games in all competitions, with 3 of those defeats taking place away from the DW Stadium. Wigan were poor for the first 45 minutes when losing to Tottenham 1-2 at home last week and Martinez will expect a better performance. Wigan have conceded at least 2 goals in each of their last 4 games since earning back to back clean sheets against Swansea and QPR.
Steve Gohouri was sent off last week and will miss this game through suspension, while Antolin Alcaraz is a long term absentee. Emmerson Boyce is in a battle for fitness, while the injury to Hugo Rodallega means Franco Di Santo or Conor Sammon will start up front.
Head to Head
A surprising statistic is Aston Villa have won just 3 of the 12 Premier League meetings these two have played.
Even more surprising is the fact that all 3 wins have come when the game is played at Wigan.
Wigan are 3-3-0 in games played at Villa Park and earned a 1-1 draw here last season.
Prediction
Aston Villa have been struggling for goals, especially at Villa Park where the onus is on them to attack, and I find it hard to believe that they are being priced as short as they are, even against Wigan who have lost 4 games in a row.
Darren Bent should return to the Villa side this week, but I think they have drawn far too many games because Alex McLeish is a manager that is more concerned with not leaving the backdoor open than actually setting his team out to go out and attack the opposition.
This has led to the front players being starved of support and service and they do not look like a side that can be trusted at short odds to win games.
Wigan have been struggling, but their last 2 away games in the League have been tough, and I expect Roberto Martinez would have been working on their defensive shape all through the week after a terrible first half against Tottenham last week.
I just have a feeling the away side will fancy getting a result here, especially considering their successes on this ground over the last few seasons.
I am not quite confident in picking Wigan to win this game, even at the tempting 6.00, because of a lack of goals in the side, but I do think they can get 1 goal and that may be good enough to avoid defeat against this current Villa side.
You can find Wigan + 0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.30 at Bet365 and that looks the best place to get on. The official handicap is Wigan + 1, but I am taking the smaller one as the price is almost 0.50 points better and I do think Wigan can avoid defeat.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Aston Villa 1-1 Wigan
