NCAA Football
2011-10-01 - Baylor Bears at Kansas State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 5
Saturday 1 October 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
These two unbeaten teams will get their Big 12 Conference play underway as they meet Manhatten, Kansas. The Baylor Bears (3-0) have made a good start while being led by a Heisman contender on Offense, while the Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) have relied on a stellar Defensive unit.
Baylor are ranked at number 15 in the nation following their unbeaten start to the season which began with a win over TCU at home as the underdog. Their Offense has been very impressive in the opening 4 weeks of the season, mainly thanks to the inspired play of Robert Griffin III at QB.
It is quite unbelievable to say this after 4 weeks of the season, but Griffin III has thrown more TD passes (13) than he has incompletions (12) and he is yet to suffer an Interception. This play has led the Bears to averaging 51 points per game and just under 600 yards of total Offense through the early part of the season.
Griffin III is rightly receiving a lot of the credit for the way Baylor have opened the season, but he is being backed up by Terrance Ganaway on the ground to give the Bears some balance in their play.
The Defensive unit has not really had to step up as much so far this season due to the fact the Offense is playing so well, but they will not want to do what they did against TCU when they allowed the Horned Frogs to almost overcome a 24 point deficit in the final Quarter of that win. They have allowed an average of 26 points per game and 363 yards of total Offense in their first 3 games.
Kansas State will look to test the Baylor Defense with their rushing attack that is gaining an average of 219 yards per game on the ground. Collin Klein, the QB, is the leading rusher on the team as they look to control the clock and allow the Defense to step and do their thing to maintain the win.
The Wildcats are ranked at 6th in the nation in total yards allowed by their Defense and they are 11th when it comes to defending the pass, although they should be heavily tested by this strong Bears Offense. They did allow 411 yards of total Offense in their win over Miami last week and gave up 3 TDs, but the Defensive units abiding memory will be stopping the Hurricanes on 4th and goal with time running out.
They have only allowed 10 points per game in their opening 3 contests of the season, although Miami were the best team they have faced up to this week.
The Wildcats will most likely be missing Shaun Simon (C) again this week- Simon has not played in the last 2 games for Kansas State and is listed as doubtful this week.
Baylor look set to miss Tyler Stephenson (CB) for the 3rd game in a row as he is still listed as questionable. Stephenson would have been one of the starters if he was ready to go. Lache Seastrunk (RB) is still awaiting clearance from the NCAA to play for Baylor after transferring in from Oregon and he too is listed as questionable as no decision has been received just yet.
Head to Head
Baylor beat Kansas State 47-42 at home last season, meaning the home team is now 2-2 straight up in the last 4 games of the series.
Baylor have lost all 3 times they have played in Manhatten, going 1-2 against the spread in those games too.
The Bears are 2-5 against the spread in the last 7 games of the series.
Kansas State are 2-1 against the spread this season, Baylor are 2-0.
Other Interesting Notes
Kansas State are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games in Conference play.
However, they are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Baylor are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in the Conference.
Prediction
This should be an interesting game between two unbeaten teams in the Big 12 that know they have much bigger tests to face later in the season.
I am favouring the Baylor Bears to record the win and cover for the following reasons:
First, Kansas State do have a tough Defense, but Miami exposed some of their flaws and Baylor are a much stronger Offense than the Hurricanes.
Second, the Wildcats had a tough emotional win last week and they may not have the energy to be as fired up for this, even though this is a Conference game.
Third, Robert Griffin III is playing at an extremely high level at the moment at is being considered as possibly the best QB in College Football. It will be hard for the Wildcats to slow him down.
Fourth, Baylor are scoring too many points at the moment and will force Kansas State to pass the ball, something which is not their strength, and that may also tip the favour in Baylor's favour.
The Pick :
Kansas State Wildcats 27-37 Baylor Bears
