NCAA Football
2011-10-01 - Nebraska Cornhuskers at Wisconsin Badgers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 5
Saturday 1 October 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is, outside of Alabama's visit to Florida, the biggest game of the weekend as Big Ten action gets underway. There is no better way to start than pairing up the Wisconsin Badgers (4-0) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-0), the two favourites to win the title this season.
Both teams have got through their non-Conference part of the schedule with relative ease, although it was Wisconsin that have impressed people the most. Both teams are ranked in the top 8 of the nation, but Nebraska have disappointed many with their up and down performances so far, although they have been preparing to battle Wisconsin ever since the schedule was released.
Wisconsin will hope they can continue racking up the wins behind new QB, and Heisman contender, Russell Wilson who has been brilliant in his short time at his new school. Wilson has thrown 11 TDs and only 1 Interception through the first 4 weeks of the season and has helped provide a real balance in the Badgers Offense.
They average 245 yards per game on the ground, and 283 yards through the air and there are a number of other playmakers in the Offense like Nick Toon (WR) and Montee Bell (RB) that assist Wilson.
While the Offense has been rolling, the Badgers Defense has been stifling, allowing just 8.5 points per game and holding teams to under 90 yards rushing and 160 yards passing.
Nebraska will provide a real test for the Wisconsin Defense, especially when it comes to the Rush Defense stats, as they have decimated teams on the ground at the risk of becoming a little one-dimensional. The Cornhuskers average 272 yards per game on the ground, although it is telling that QB Tyler Martinez is the leading rusher with 421 yards and also has 7 rushing TDs.
Martinez' play when forced into passing situations has not been so good, and he is completing just 50% of his attempts. Martinez has thrown 4 TDs and 2 Interceptions through the first 4 weeks of the season and only has 647 yards through the air.
The Defense is usually the foundation for the Nebraska success, but they have not been at their best this season, allowing 22 points per game and just under 350 yards of total Offense. There are still a huge number of talented members of the Defense, but they have struggled to put it all together in the early weeks of the season.
Nebraska will be hoping Alfonzo Dennard (CB) will be a little more comfortable in the system having made his first start at Wyoming last week.
Wisconsin will be hoping Josh Oglesby (OL) will be available this week after missing the game with South Dakota last week. Oglesby is listed as questionable, but the Badgers are confident he will suit up.
Head to Head
This is the first meeting between the schools since 1974.
Wisconsin are 3-1 against the spread this season, Nebraska are 1-3.
Other Interesting Notes
Wisconsin are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games overall.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite.
They have won their last 6 games against the spread in Conference play.
Nebraska are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 games against teams with winning records at home.
Prediction
This should be a really good game between teams that are favourites to win the Big Ten and will be hoping they are playing in one of the big Bowl Games this season. I am going to favour Wisconsin to secure the win and cover for the following reasons:
First, they have a bye week next week and can concentrate fully and focus all efforts on this game.
Second, Wisconsin have the balanced Offense that will cause Nebraska problems as they won't know whether to bring 8 men into the box or try and cover receivers.
Third, Nebraska are a little one-dimensional with their Offense and will be brought out of their comfort zone if trailing and forced to throw the ball which could lead to mistakes and turnovers.
Fourth, Wisconsin definitely have the more secure QB and that could be the key difference when it is all said and done.
The Pick :
Wisconsin Badgers 34-24 Nebraska Cornhuskers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Wisconsin Badgers -9 Points @ 1.92
