UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal Betting pick | 2011-10-01

NCAA Football

2011-10-01 - UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

UCLA Bruins @ #6 Stanford Cardinal
United States: NCAA Football Week 5
Saturday 1 October 2011 - Kick Off 10:30pm ET
3:30am (British Standard Time)

Preview

This is a Pac-12 game between two teams that have a history with one another when the UCLA Bruins (2-2) visit Andrew Luck and the Stanford Cardinal (3-0) with both teams having won their opening Conference games.

Stanford are considered one of the dark horses to play in the National Championship game, although they will need help from the likes of Alabama and LSU who are leading contenders as long as they stay undefeated. The Cardinal have won all 3 games this season with ease, and they made a real statement in blowing out the Arizona Wildcats on the road in their last game.

Andrew Luck is obviously the big name player in the Offense with his name effectively rubber stamped as the Number 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft next April. Luck has thrown for over 750 yards in 3 games this season, throwing 8 TDs and only 1 Interception and he is ably backed up by Stepfan Taylor who has rushed for an average of 96.3 yards per game. The Offense is 9th in the nation in scoring, averaging 46 points per game.

The Cardinal Defensive unit has prided itself in stopping the run this season, holding teams to an average of 36 yards per game in their first 3 contests this season. They have only allowed 2 TDs, and teams are averaging 9 points per game so far.

There is a problem for Stanford as they have lost Shayne Skov (LB) for the season when he was injured in the game with Arizona. Skov has been described as the 'emotional leader of the Defense' and it will be interesting to see how the Cardinal will play the run now. It sounds like James Vaughter will come in to replace Skov.

Coby Fleener (TE) also came out of the game with Arizona and his status for this game is questionable- Fleener is one of the safety blankets for Andrew Luck and would be a loss if he cannot start.

UCLA were blown out by Texas at home in Week 3, but they did earn a big win at Oregon State last week to open up their Conference play. The Bruins will look to their rushing attack to keep the Luck and the Cardinal Offense off the field for as long as possible.

Johnathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman have been the main workhorses of the Offense and have combined for an average of 150 yards per game on the ground, while the Bruins average 214 yards per game rushing which is ranked at 28th in the nation.

The Defensive unit has had some tough assignments this season, playing Case Keenum and the high scoring Houston Offense earlier this season, but the Secondary has generally stood up to the tests they have faced. However, they will have to play a lot better against the run if they want to restrict Stepfan Taylor as they are allowing an average of 183 yards per game on the ground.

The Bruins have allowed 30 points per game so far this season and will not want to get involved in a shoot out against this Cardinal team that should be fresh after having a bye week last week.

It does not bode well for UCLA that they have a few issues in the Secondary coming into this game. Sheldon Price (CB) should be suited up to go, but Andrew Abbot (CB) is questionable. Dalton Hilliard (SS) should be good to go, but Tony Dye (SS) and Glenn Love (LB) are both questionable.

Head to Head

Stanford have won the last 2 games against UCLA, both straight up and against the spread, and they won 35-0 at the Bruins last season.

Stanford are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 home games against UCLA.

The home team is now 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games of the series.

Stanford are 3-0 against the spread this season, UCLA are 1-3.

Other Interesting Notes

Stanford are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.

They are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last 6 games in Conference play.

UCLA are 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games in the Conference.

They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road underdog.

They are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record at home.

Prediction

I have to pick Stanford here to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, they are coming into this game having a bye week and that should have them additionally prepared to play a team they have a storied rivalry with.

Second, UCLA are playing back to back road games and put in a lot of effort in winning at Oregon State last week.

Third, Stanford play the run as well as any Defensive unit and are likely to make the UCLA Bruins a one-dimensional Offense and that could help the Cardinal pull away in the 2nd half.

Fourth, UCLA were blown out by Texas and Stanford represent a significant upgrade in test for them.