NCAA Football
2011-10-01 - Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 5
Saturday 1 October 2011 - Kick Off 2:30pm ET
7:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
No one can possibly talk about this game without mentioning the 'revenge' Boise State (3-0) must be itching to get on the Nevada Wolf Pack (1-2) after the latter beat the Broncos in Overtime last season to effectively end Boise State's chances of playing in one of the big Bowl Games.
Kyle Brotzman must have thought he was on a hiding to nothing being the kicker for Boise State, but he became the most famous name on campus as the player that missed the FG that effectively cost the Broncos the game and their unbeaten run.
This match has a tonne of history attached to it as they were former Conference rivals in the WAC, but Boise State moved to the Mountain West this season, although they will be joined by the Wolf Pack in 2012.
Nevada do not come into this match in the best of hearts as they somehow blew a 4th Quarter lead against Texas Tech last season to fall to their 2nd defeat of the season. They now also have a QB battle developing after backup Cody Fajardo played well in relief of Tyler Lantrip after scoring 2 TDs on the ground and throwing for another.
The Wolf Pack continue running up the numbers on the ground, rushing for average of 285 yards per game which is good for 7th in the nation.
However, the Defense is struggling and have already been torched for 69 points in a blowout thanks to the Oregon Ducks. Now they face Kellen Moore and an impressive Boise State Offense that does not have any problem racking up the yards and putting up a bunch of points.
Boise State have scored at least 1 TD in every Quarter they have played this year, but they still have some issues to resolve as they want more from their rushing attack that averages 3.4 yards per carry and also from a Defense that is not as strong as last season.
The Broncos are allowing 19 points per game so far this season, after allowing just 12.8 points per game through last season, although they are creating turnovers that allow Moore and the Offense short fields which they are more than capable of taking advantage of.
Boise State are being a little careful in not giving away too much in terms of the injury report, and they have left Thomas Byrd (C), Jake Broyles (OG) and Chase Baker (DT) as questionable for this week, although all would be starters if they are suited up.
There are no new injury concerns for the Wolf Pack, but the biggest question remains which of the two QBs will be starting this week.
Head to Head
Nevada shocked Boise State by beating them last season when they were considered the 2 TD underdogs.
Boise State have dominated the series straight up in recent seasons, but Nevada are 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 games.
The favourite is 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games of the series.
Boise State are 2-1 against the spread this season, Nevada are 1-2.
Other Interesting Notes
Boise State are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games as the favourite.
They are 19-9-1 against the spread in their last 29 games against opponents from the WAC.
They are 24-11-1 against the spread in their last 36 games against non-Conference opponents.
Nevada are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the underdog.
They are 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
I do like Boise State to win and cover the spread in this game for the following reasons:
First, they have plenty of motivation for this game following their defeat in the last meeting that cost Boise State a chance to play in one of the big Bowl Games last year.
Second, Nevada's Offense is not as strong as last year and have issues at QB which may make it much more difficult to keep up with the Broncos.
Third, the Wolf Pack Defense was shredded by Oregon in their first game of the season and will struggle to contain the fast paced Boise State Offense that is fully motivated.
The Pick :
Boise State 52-21 Nevada Wolf Pack
