NCAA Football
2011-09-29 - South Florida Bulls at Pittsburgh Panthers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 5
Thursday 29 September 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Big East will open up Conference play on a Thursday night on National television as two of the favourites to win face off. The South Florida Bulls (4-0) bring their unbeaten record into historic Heinze Field to face off against the Pittsburgh Panthers (2-2) in the hope they can reverse recent trends.
This could be the last time the teams play for some time as the Panthers look certain to be moving to the ACC in the very near future.
South Florida remain unbeaten this season, but this game is arguably their biggest challenge since knocking of Notre Dame in Week 1, and they have not had a good time in Big East matches since joining the Conference in 2005. The Bulls finished 3-4 last season and are just 28-30 since 2005.
A lot of the pressure of expectation will be on the shoulders of BJ Daniels who has thrown 8 TDs and also rushed for 2 more while he has only given up 1 Interception through the first 4 weeks of the season.
Daniels has helped the Bulls rack up over 500 yards of total Offense per game, but the Pittsburgh Panthers have the best Defense they will have faced since Notre Dame. The Defense is very much that will bend but not break, and though they allowed just under 400 yards to the Fighting Irish in their loss last week, the Panthers held them to just 15 points.
Pittsburgh will be hoping Tino Sunseri, their own QB, can get a bit more of a rhythm in his performance as he has thrown 4 TDs and 4 Interceptions this season while averaging just 223 yards per game through the air.
The Panthers have also blown 2 games in a row thanks to 4th Quarter meltdowns, but you have to expect they will be completely focused on their first Conference game of the season.
Chris Jacobson (LG) has been officially ruled out for the season after injuring himself in the game with Iowa in Week 3 so Pittsburgh will start Cory King.
South Florida have a few injuries, but most of those players will be playing this week knowing there is a bye for them next week. Quenton Washington (CB), Tyson Butler (SS) and Tony Kibler (RG) have all be upgraded to probable, but regular punt returner, Terrence Mitchell will be missing.
Head to Head
Pittsburgh have won the last 3 games in the series, both straight up and against the spread, including a 17-10 win on the road last season.
The Panthers are 2-2 in their last 4 at home against the Bulls, but they did win their last meeting here 41-14 in 2009.
Pittsburgh are 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
Pittsburgh are 1-3 against the spread this season, South Florida are 3-1.
Other Interesting Notes
Pittsburgh are 12-4 against the spread in their last 16 games in the Conference.
They are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games after losing their previous game straight up.
They are 1-6-1 against the spread in the last 8 games in September.
South Florida have won their last 5 games against the spread on the road.
They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games in the Conference.
Prediction
I have to say, South Florida's recent record in the Conference as well as against Pittsburgh has put me off slightly, but I do like them to come through and get a statement win for the following reasons:
First, South Florida have a bye week next week and can completely concentrate on this game.
Second, Pittsburgh have had two hammer blows in the last 2 weeks by blowing leads in the 4th Quarter and they may play apprehensive with the game on the line to try and avoid a hat trick of disappointments.
Third, South Florida have the better QB and have the edge when they have the ball and when Pittsburgh have the ball.
The Pick :
Pittsburgh Panthers 17-24 South Florida Bulls
