CHAMPIONS LEAGUE BETTING PICK - AC MILAN V VIKTORIA PLZEN

Champions League

2011-09-28 - AC Milan vs Viktoria Plzen

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

AC Milan v Viktoria Plzen
Football : Champions League Match Day 2
Wednesday 28 September 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
This game is live on TV

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AC Milan

AC Milan have entered European's top competition as Champions of Serie A for the first time in 7 years and they have already made a statement by earning a draw at Barcelona on Match Day 1 of the group stage.

While that result against the Champions of Europe would have surprised many, their performance at home in Serie A has surprised a lot of the Milan fans. The Rossoneri have made a slow start, going 1-2-1 in their first 4 League games and they sit in 11th, although only 3 points behind the leaders Juventus. Milan are 1-2-0 at the San Siro in the early part of the campaign, scoring 4 goals and conceding 3.

Milan had failed to win their opening 4 competitive games of the season before beating Cesena 1-0 at home over the weekend. Home draws with Lazio and Udinese will have disappointed supporters, but their record in the Champions League is even more surprising. Milan have won just 1 of their last 9 Champions League games at home and they have lost 2 in a row.

The team have lost 5 of 9 at the San Siro in this competition, and while the losses to Real Madrid and Manchester United can be forgiven, others to Zurich, Ajax and Tottenham are much more surprising.

Robinho will be missing for the home side, while Filippo Inzaghi is not in the Champions League squad. Other doubts for Milan are Zlaten Ibrahimovic, Pato, Massimo Ambrosini and Kevin-Prince Boateng.

Viktoria Plzen

Viktoria Plzen were the surprise winners of the Czech Republic league last season, and they get a chance to make their bow in the Champions League proper having qualified through 3 Rounds of qualifying already this season. Many will consider Plzen as one of the weakest teams in the competition this season.

The pressure of playing as Champions may have contributed to Plzen's slow start to this campaign where they have compiled a 4-2-2 record. That has left the team down in 5th place in the League, 10 points behind leaders Sparta Prague. They are 2-1-1 away from home where they have scored 8 goals and conceded 6.

Viktoria are unbeaten in their last 5 games in all competitions since losing to Sparta Prague 0-2 at home. That includes a 1-1 home draw with Bate Borisov on Match Day 1 of the competition. Plzen have won all 3 away games in this competition so far this season, including at Rosenborg and Copenhagen, but last season they were beaten 3-0 at Besiktas in the Europa League qualifying round.

Marek Cech will be playing in goal in place of regular goalkeeper Roman Pavlik.

Head to Head

This will be the first time AC Milan face Viktoria Plzen in a competitive match.

Milan have hosted a club from the Czech Republic on 4 previous occasions, but their first win came when they beat Sparta Prague 4-1 in the last 16 of this competition in the 2003/04 season.

Prediction

I have to think Milan will be too good for their opponents in this match, but I am a little concerned with their poor recent record in the Champions League at the San Siro.

However, I think Viktoria Plzen will do very well if they are one of the teams that are capable of gaining a result here, even if some lesser sides like Zurich have managed to do that in recent times.

I expect the win over Cesena at the weekend will have given Milan a little more confidence and they will not want to relinquish the slight edge they have built over Barcelona by earning that 2-2 draw from the Nou Camp during the opening round of fixtures.

Milan's only 2 victories in this competition last season came against Auxerre at home and away, and I have to think Viktoria Plzen are not quite as good as the French side so I will back the home side to secure a rare home win by at least 2 goals.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :

I'll back AC Milan -1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05