NFL Football
2011-09-25 - Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 3
Sunday 25 September 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a repeat of the infamous NFC Championship game from last season as two NFC North teams meet at Soldier Field when the Chicago Bears (1-1) host the defending SuperBowl Champions, the Green Bay Packers (2-0).
The last time these two met was overshadowed by the actions of Jay Cutler, the Chicago QB, who left the game with a supposed knee injury yet was seen on the sidelines working out the issues on a bike before standing away from the rest of his teammates as the Bears lost the chance to play in the big game in front of their own fans.
Many fans were upset with Cutler's actions, but it was the reaction of his peers up and down the country on Twitter that was most revealing, although the likes of Brian Urlacher stuck up for Cutler in the immediate aftermath of the loss.
It could be another long day in the office for Cutler if the Bears do not improve their Offensive Line's protection after giving up 56 sacks last season, a League high, and beginning this season by allowing 11 further sacks in the opening 2 weeks of the season to again lead the League.
Green Bay were responsible for putting Cutler on his backside 11 times in the 3 meetings they had against one another, and the Packers know they have to get pressure on the QB this season if they want to disguise what has been an awful pass Defense. The Pack already have 7 sacks in 2 games this season and will be expected to improve that here.
The Packers have given up 400 passing yards per game in wins over New Orleans and Carolina and while that number is acceptable against someone like Drew Brees, it is not when playing against a rookie in Cam Newton last week. To make matters worse for Green Bay, they have lost Safety Nick Collins for the season when he was injured in Carolina.
It says a lot about Green Bay that they have allowed teams so many passing yards that they are still 2-0 this season, and that is down to Aaron Rodgers and a really impressive Offense. There are so many options for Rodgers in his receiving corps, but the balance of the team could be improved markedly if James Starks can continue his hot start running the ball.
Rodgers has struggled against this vaunted Bears Defense in the past, but must have been licking his lips when watching the video of their game with the New Orleans Saints last week.
Chicago will have a hard time keeping up with the Packers if Roy Williams and Earl Bennett are missing while Gabe Carimi (RG) is out and Lance Louis (G) is banged up. Carimi and Louis will only hurt an Offensive Line that is struggling to keep opponents out of the backfield and in Cutler's face.
Head to Head
Green Bay won 2 of the 3 meetings last season, but it was the Bears that went 2-1 against the spread in those games.
The Packers are actually 4-1 against Chicago in recent meetings, and they have won 2 of the last 3 at Soldier Field.
Green Bay are 10-3 against the spread in the last 13 meetings at Soldier Field.
Both teams are 1-1 against the spread this season.
Other Interesting Notes
Chicago are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games at home.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games when losing the previous game by 14 or more points straight up.
They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games when allowing 30 points or more in a loss in their previous game.
However, they are 4-9-1 against the spread in the last 14 games following an ATS loss.
The Bears are 8-20 against the spread in their last 28 games as the underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.
Green Bay are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as the favourite.
They are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 games being favoured by between 3.5 and 10 points.
89% of the wagers made in Vegas are on the Green Bay Packers.
Prediction
You can never go over the top when teams play Divisional rivals because you know the underdog will try that much harder, regardless of their record, but I still really like the Packers to win this game and cover.
Green Bay have so many options on the Offensive side of things that it is going to be hard for Chicago to cover them all, especially the way New Orleans spread them out last week and were able to move the ball.
The Bears have also been surprisingly poor against the run in the first 2 weeks of the season and that could be exploited by a Packers team that will likely give James Starks more of the ball and more touches than the starter Ryan Grant. Starks gave the Bears a hard time in the NFC Championship game, yet there seem to be more holes now.
Chicago will then need to try and keep up with the Packers and that is going to be ridiculously difficult if they can't keep Jay Cutler on his feet. The Packers have had plenty of success in getting to the QB, although Cutler could carve up a suspect Secondary if he does get time.
I just don't think he will have a lot of time for much of the game, especially if Green Bay get a lead and that could make it a long afternoon for him. With Bennett and Williams both banged up too, and Greg Olsen gone, I think his options will be limited and Green Bay should be able to come away with the win and cover.
The weather shouldn't be a factor at this time of year either, so I can only see Green Bay winning this game.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Chicago Bears 17-27 Green Bay Packers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Green Bay Packers -3.5 Points @ 1.95
