NCAA Football
2011-09-24 - Oklahoma State at Texas A&M
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 24 September 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
I am going to come right out and say it- the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (2-0) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) is the one I am looking forward to most in the NCAA this weekend as it should be one with plenty of scoring and could really go either way.
To make the game even more interesting is the fact this is the opening of the Big 12 Conference this season, a Conference that includes the current Number 1 ranked team in the nation, the Oklahoma Sooners, and one where 8 of the 10 teams are currently unbeaten this season.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are very much known for their powerful Offense which ranks in the top 3 of the nation for Scoring Offense, total yards and passing yards. They are averaging 52.3 points per game in the opening 3 weeks of the season and have gained an incredible 601 yards per game.
All this throwing the ball around means QB Brendon Weedon has already thrown 6 Interceptions, although he also has 8 TD passes to his name. The Interceptions need to be eradicated against the better teams in the nation if the Cowboys really want to be a threat in this Conference.
A big test for Weedon will also be how he handles the blitz happy Texas A&M Defense that has 11 sacks on the season. Weedon has only been sacked 3 times in the first 3 weeks of the season, but the Cowboys will have a tough task keeping the Aggies out of the backfield.
The Defense will also need to improve as they are currently allowing 27 points per game, although they have the same tendencies as the SuperBowl winning New Orleans Saints in the NFL that would give up chunks of yardage and points, but had the ability to turn the ball over. Oklahoma State have 9 takeaways on the season in their opening 3 games to give their Offense quick chances to put points on the board.
Texas A&M will look to take advantage of a Cowboys Defense that has allowed 5 rushing TDs this season by giving the ball to their impressive running back, Cyrus Gray.
Gray had 2 rushing TDs in the Aggies win over Idaho and has now topped 100 yards rushing in 9 straight games for Texas. His able running has really helped Ryan Tannehill at QB, who threw for his 2nd 300 + passing yards game in his career last week.
The Texas A&M Defense has also allowed just 10.5 points per game in their opening 2 games of the season while holding teams to 267 total yards.
Alex Elkins (LB) missed Oklahoma State's Week 3 win over Tulsa after suffering an injury in Week 2, but he was rested last week and the starter is likely to play this week.
Head to Head
Oklahoma State have won 3 games in a row in the series after losing the previous 4 against the Aggies.
They have gone 2-0-1 against the spread in those wins, the last coming courtesy of a 38-35 home win with a late field goal.
Texas A&M are 1-1 against the spread this season, Oklahoma State are 2-1.
Other Interesting Notes
Texas A&M have won their last 6 games against the spread when playing fellow Conference teams.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 home games as the favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
However, they are 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 games following a straight up win of at least 20 points.
Oklahoma State have won their last 6 games against the spread on the road.
They are just 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games when considered the road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Prediction
If this is not a high scoring contest, I think I will eat my hat- both Offenses are clearly the more powerful units in the team and recent head to heads between the schools show both are capable of putting up plenty of points.
The key to the match will be turnovers, with Oklahoma State winning the game last season thanks to 5 turnovers.
Both Defenses are capable of stripping the ball from the other, although I think the Cowboys are a little more effective at doing so.
This just has all the makings of a game that will be settled by the team which has the ball last. With Oklahoma State's recent record against the Aggies, I will take a chance on them with the points to keep this close.
The Pick :
Texas A&M 38-41 Oklahoma State Cowboys
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Oklahoma State Cowboys +4.5 Points @ 1.95
