NCAA Football
2011-09-24 - Arkansas Razorbacks at Alabama
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 24 September 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The SEC is arguably the toughest Conference in the FBS, and now we have two teams meeting in their first Conference game of the season with the promise that one of their unbeaten records will be gone by the end of it. The Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) are considered one of the favourites to play in the National Championship game, but face their first real test of the season in the form of the Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0).
Arkansas come into the game having beat Troy last week, although Head Coach Bobby Petrino was far from pleased with the teams 2nd half performance that saw them go '3 and out' on 3 occasions while another Offensive drive was put to bed with an Interception returned for a TD.
While it wasn't the best 2nd half performance, Arkansas were very much ahead in the game and there is an element of the team looking ahead to this big contest in Tuscaloosa, although that did not make Petrino feel any better.
The Defense also gave up a lot of yardage to Troy last week, but have generally been stout this season, especially against the run where they have limited teams to 87.7 yards per game. The Razorbacks have allowed just 12.7 points per game so far this season, and they have yet to concede a TD on the ground, but that will surely be tested by the Crimson Tide this week.
Trent Richardson and Eddy Lacy combined for 328 yards on the ground in Alabama's blow out over North Texas last week, and the team is ranked at 11th in the nation for yards on the ground per game.
AJ McCarron is firmly entrenched as the QB after the Crimson Tide had begun with 2 different players under Center. He will be there to manage the game for the Crimson Tide with the bulk of the work being done on the ground by Richardson and Lacy.
The biggest weapon for the Crimson Tide is that Defense that is not allowing schools to do anything against them so far. They have allowed just 6 points per game and holding teams to 170 yards total Offense per game.
Alabama will be missing Duron Carter (WR) who is officially out for the season due to eligibility issues, but Danny Woodson Jr (WR) and Chris Jordan (LB) are both likely to dress for this game.
The Razorbacks will be missing Jake Bequette (DE) after he was injured against North Mexico in Week 2. Bequette was an important player for Arkansas last season so his absence is a blow for the team. There is better news for Bobby Petrino that Jarius Wright (WR) is probable for this game, especially considering the receiver already has 3 TDs for the season.
Head to Head
Alabama have won the last 4 games in the series between the schools, including a come from behind win on the road last season that they pulled off 24-20.
Alabama have won their last 3 at home against Arkansas, although they are 1-2 against the spread in those games.
Arkansas are 5-3 against the spread in the last 8 games of the series.
Both schools are 2-1 against the spread this season.
Other Interesting Notes
Alabama are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games at home.
They are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 home games as the favourite of 10.5 points or more.
The Crimson Tide are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.
Arkansas are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games against fellow SEC teams.
They are 14-4 against the spread in their last 18 games following a straight up win.
They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games when considered the road underdog being given 10.5 points or more.
Prediction
This should be a very interesting game between two SEC teams who will feel they have a chance for something special if they can get through this test.
Arkansas will have to keep a balance in their Offense if they want to open up any kind of passing lanes for Tyler Wilson, but it has been proven for a number of seasons that it is tough to run on the Crimson Side.
On the other hand, the rushing Defense of the Razorbacks has to keep the Crimson Tide from breaking through them and force AJ McCarron to beat them through the air.
It will be fascinating to see how each Coach makes the adjustment to the other, but I just have a feeling it will be a tight game that could be decided by a TD in either teams favour.
I favour the Crimson Tide to come through with home field advantage on their side, but it will be a tough day in the office so I will take the points offered for the Razorbacks to try and keep this close.
The Pick :
Alabama 24-20 Arkansas Razorbacks
